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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2017

Short-term forecast, 20 December 2017

Economic growth is projected to continue in 2018. GDP will increase by more than 3%, as it did in 2017. These are the highest growth percentages since 2007. Therefore, by next year, we can speak of an economic boom. All forms of spending will contribute to growth.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2018

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2018.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2015-2018 (a)

International items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Relevant world trade volume goods
and services (%)

3.7

3.6

4.5

4.3

Export price competitors (goods and
services, non-commodities, %)

8.0

-5.1

0.3

0.8

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

51.9

43.3

53.8

61.7

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.11

1.11

1.13

1.17

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

0.7

0.3

0.5

0.5


GDP and demand (volume)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

2.3

2.2

3.2

3.1

Consumption households (%)

2.0

1.6

2.2

2.4

Consumption general government (%)

-0.2

1.2

0.8

3.0

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

11.2

3.1

5.5

5.5

Exports of goods and services (%)

6.5

4.3

5.7

4.9

Imports of goods and services (%)

8.4

4.1

5.3

5.5


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.8

0.6

1.0

1.7

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

1.5

-0.9

1.2

0.8

Import price goods (%)

-5.4

-4.4

4.8

1.8

Inflation, harmonised index of
consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.2

0.1

1.3

1.5

Compensation per hour private sector (%)

-0.2

0.6

1.6

2.9

Contractual wages private sector (%)

1.2

1.5

1.6

2.2

Purchasing power, static, median,
all households (%)

1.0

2.6

0.3

0.6


Labour market
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour force (%)

0.4

0.4

0.9

1.1

Active labour force (%)

1.0

1.3

2.1

2.1

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

614

538

440

360

Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)

6.9

6.0

4.9

3.9

Employment (hours, %)

0.6

2.0

2.1

2.0


Other items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour share in enterprise income
(level in %)

72.2

72.9

72.4

72.6

Labour productivity private sector
(per hour, %)

1.5

0.4

1.2

1.2

Private savings (% of disposable
household income)

-0.4

0.3

0.0

0.3

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.3

8.7

8.6

8.3


Public sector
  2015 2016 2017 2018
General government financial balance
(% GDP)

-2.1

0.4

0.5

0.5

Gross debt general government
(% GDP)

64.6

61.8

56.6

53.1

Taxes and social security contributions
(% GDP)

37.3

38.7

38.9

38.9

Gross government expenditure
(% GDP)

45.2

43.8

43.0

42.7

(a) CPB uses as of MEV 2018 a new method for the calculation of the labour share in enterprise income. This new method takes better account of the income of self-employed persons and therefore better matches current economic reality. A joint 'notitie' of CBS, CPB and DNB is available on this subject (only in Dutch).

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