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CPB's short-term forecasts June 2016

Short-term forecast, 3 June 2016

Economic growth is continuing, for an important part as a result of domestic spending. The economy is projected to grow by 1.8% this year and by 2.1% in 2017. Consumption levels will increase by 1.5% this year and 2.1% next year, due to an increase in household disposable income under continued low inflation. For both years, investments are projected to grow by more than GDP. Public spending will lag behind economic growth. These are some of the conclusions in the June Projections 2016 by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release and publication (only in Dutch).

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2017

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2017.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2014-2017

International items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Relevant world trade volume goods
and services (%)

3.9

4.0

3.9

4.8

Export price competitors (goods and
services, non-commodities, %)

-1.3

7.1

-1.6

1.7

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

99.0

52.5

42.0

47.4

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.33

1.11

1.13

1.13

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.5

0.7

0.4

0.3


GDP and demand (volume)
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

1.0

2.0

1.8

2.1

Consumption households (%)

0.0

1.5

1.5

2.1

Consumption general government (%)

0.3

0.1

1.1

0.2

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

2.7

8.2

6.0

3.9

Exports of goods and services (%)

4.0

5.3

5.1

4.5

Imports of goods and services (%)

4.0

6.4

6.3

4.7


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.8

0.4

0.7

0.9

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

-0.7

0.8

-0.5

1.4

Import price goods (%)

-3.1

-5.2

-3.3

2.8

Inflation, harmonised index of
consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.9

Contractual wages market sector (%)

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.7

Purchasing power, static, median,
all households (%)

1.4

1.0

2.6

0.2


Labour market
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Labour force (%)

-0.4

0.4

0.3

1.3

Active labour force (%)

-0.6

1.0

0.8

1.6

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

660

614

575

560

Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)

7.4

6.9

6.4

6.2


Market sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Production (%)

1.9

2.6

2.3

2.7

Labour productivity (hours, %)

1.4

1.0

0.9

1.4

Employment (hours, %)

0.5

1.5

1.3

1.3

Compensation per hour (%)

1.7

1.2

2.4

2.3

Labour share in enterprise income
(level in %)

79.2

78.0

78.4

78.8


Other items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Private savings (% of disposable
household income)

0.8

1.0

2.4

1.9

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

10.6

9.2

9.0

8.8


Public sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
General government financial balance
(% GDP)

-2.4

-1.8

-1.6

-1.0

Gross debt general government
(% GDP)

68.2

65.1

64.5

63.1

Taxes and social security contributions
(% GDP)

37.5

37.5

37.7

37.8

CPB uses as of CEP 2016 hours worked instead of FTE as standard for labour input. This has implications for the figures on wage rates and employment. A CPB Background Document with more information is available (only in Dutch).

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