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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2016

Short-term forecast, 20 September 2016

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the third forecast of 2016, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2017. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2016 and 2017. MEV 2017 is only available in Dutch but you can download an English translation of chapter 1.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release and the Macro Economic Outlook 2017.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2017

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2017.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2014-2017

International items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Relevant world trade volume goods
and services (%)

3.9

3.8

3.4

3.2

Export price competitors (goods and
services, non-commodities, %)

-1.3

6.0

-2.2

1.2

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

99.0

52.5

43.7

51.4

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.33

1.11

1.11

1.11

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.5

0.7

0.2

0.1


GDP and demand (volume)
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

1.4

2.0

1.7

1.7

Consumption households (%)

0.3

1.8

1.3

1.8

Consumption general government (%)

0.3

0.2

0.8

1.0

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

3.2

6.2

5.0

3.8

Exports of goods and services (%)

4.5

5.0

3.2

3.1

Imports of goods and services (%)

4.2

5.8

3.7

3.8


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.9

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

-1.0

0.2

-1.5

0.9

Import price goods (%)

-2.7

-5.1

-3.7

2.1

Inflation, harmonised index of
consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.5

Contractual wages market sector (%)

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.6

Purchasing power, static, median,
all households (%)

1.3

1.1

2.8

1.0


Labour market
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Labour force (%)

-0.4

0.4

0.3

0.7

Active labour force (%)

-0.6

1.0

1.0

0.8

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

660

614

555

555

Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)

7.4

6.9

6.2

6.2


Market sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Production (%)

2.4

2.8

2.2

2.3

Labour productivity (hours, %)

1.6

1.6

0.6

1.4

Employment (hours, %)

0.8

1.2

1.6

0.9

Compensation per hour (%)

0.8

0.2

2.3

2.0

Labour share in enterprise income
(level in %)

78.7

77.1

78.1

78.1


Other items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Private savings (% of disposable
household income)

-1.4

0.2

2.2

1.7

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.5

8.5

8.7

8.2


Public sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
General government financial balance
(% GDP)

-2.3

-1.9

-1.1

-0.7

Gross debt general government
(% GDP)

67.9

65.1

63.3

61.8

Taxes and social security contributions
(% GDP)

37.5

37.7

38.2

38.7

CPB uses as of CEP 2016 hours worked instead of FTE as standard for labour input. This has implications for the figures on wage rates and employment. A CPB Background Document with more information is available (only in Dutch).

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