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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2016

Short-term forecast, 13 December 2016

Economic growth will continue. For both this year and 2017, GDP is projected to grow by 2.1%. Next year, unemployment will decrease to 5.3% and the government budget will be balanced. Purchasing power will increase by 0.7%. The international situation, however, remains uncertain. The consequences of Brexit, for now, appear less severe than expected, but the economic and political situation in the European Union continues to be uncertain.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2017

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2017.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2014-2017

International items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Relevant world trade volume goods
and services (%)

4.1

4.0

2.7

2.9

Export price competitors (goods and
services, non-commodities, %)

-0.7

6.4

-2.2

1.4

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

99.0

52.5

43.5

50.5

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.33

1.11

1.11

1.10

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.5

0.7

0.3

0.3


GDP and demand (volume)
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

1.4

2.0

2.1

2.1

Consumption households (%)

0.3

1.8

1.6

2.1

Consumption general government (%)

0.3

0.2

1.2

0.8

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

3.2

6.2

5.5

5.3

Exports of goods and services (%)

4.5

5.0

3.4

3.2

Imports of goods and services (%)

4.2

5.8

3.8

3.8


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.1

0.1

0.7

1.2

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

-0.8

0.7

-2.2

1.1

Import price goods (%)

-2.7

-5.1

-6.3

1.2

Inflation, harmonised index of
consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.9

Contractual wages market sector (%)

1.0

1.3

1.7

1.7

Purchasing power, static, median,
all households (%)

1.3

1.1

2.7

0.7


Labour market
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Labour force (%)

-0.4

0.4

0.4

0.8

Active labour force (%)

-0.6

1.0

1.3

1.5

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

660

614

540

475

Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)

7.4

6.9

6.0

5.3


Market sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Production (%)

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.7

Labour productivity (hours, %)

1.6

1.6

0.8

1.3

Employment (hours, %)

0.8

1.2

1.9

1.4

Compensation per hour (%)

0.8

0.2

2.2

2.6

Labour share in enterprise income
(level in %)

78.7

77.1

77.8

78.0


Other items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Private savings (% of disposable
household income)

-1.4

0.2

1.8

0.8

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.5

8.5

8.7

8.3


Public sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
General government financial balance
(% GDP)

-2.3

-2.0

-0.5

0.0

Gross debt general government
(% GDP)

67.9

65.1

62.7

59.7

Taxes and social security contributions
(% GDP)

37.5

37.7

38.7

39.0

CPB uses as of CEP 2016 hours worked instead of FTE as standard for labour input. This has implications for the figures on wage rates and employment. A CPB Background Document with more information is available (only in Dutch).

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