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CPBs short-term forecasts March 2017

Short-term forecast, 24 March 2017

The Dutch economy is showing a robust level of growth. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis calculated a growth of 2.1% for this year and 1.8% for 2018. Both years are expected to show a budget surplus and unemployment will continue to decrease. At the same time, increasing inflation will have a dampening impact on purchasing power. The economic prospects are also favourable for the medium term (20182021). Over this period, the economy will grow an average 1.7%, per year, and government finances are in order. This is concluded in the Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2017, published today.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2018

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2018.

Main economic indicators 2015-2018, March 2017

 
International items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Relevant world trade volume goods and services (%)

3,9

2,7

3,0

3,6

Export price competitors (goods and services, non-commodities, %)

8,0

-3,0

1,1

1,1

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

51,9

43,3

55,5

56,1

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1,11

1,11

1,07

1,07

Long-term interest rate the Netherlands (level in %)

0,7

0,3

0,7

0,7


GDP and demand (volume)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %)

2,0

2,1

2,1

1,8

Consumption households (%)

1,8

1,8

2,0

1,4

Consumption general government (%)

0,2

0,7

0,8

1,0

Capital formation (including changes in stock, %)

6,2

4,3

3,6

2,8

Exports of goods and services (%)

5,0

3,7

3,5

3,9

Imports of goods and services (%)

5,8

3,9

3,6

3,9


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Price gross domestic product (%)

0,1

1,0

1,2

1,4

Export price goods and services (non-energy, %)

0,7

-1,0

0,9

1,0

Import price goods (%)

-5,1

-4,5

5,1

1,0

Inflation, harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, %)

0,2

0,1

1,6

1,4

Contractual wages market sector (%)

1,3

1,7

1,8

2,1

Purchasing power, static, median all households (%)

1,2

2,7

0,1

0,3


Labour market
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour force (%)

0,4

0,4

0,8

0,8

Active labour force (%)

1,0

1,3

2,0

1,1

Unemployment (in thousands of persons)

614

538

445

430

Unemployment rate (% of the labour force)

6,9

6,0

4,9

4,7


Market sector
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Production (%)

2,8

2,6

2,8

2,1

Labour productivity (hours, %)

1,6

0,3

1,0

1,4

Employment (hours, %)

1,2

2,3

1,9

0,7

Compensation per hour (%)

0,2

1,6

2,6

2,6

Labour share in enterprise income (level in %)

77,1

77,7

78,3

78,4


Other items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Private savings (% of disposable household income)

0,2

0,9

0,0

0,3

Current-account balance (level in % GDP)

8,5

8,7

8,2

8,2


Public sector
  2015 2016 2017 2018
General government financial balance (% GDP)

-2,0

0,3

0,5

0,8

Gross debt general government (% GDP)

65,1

61,8

58,5

55,5

Taxes and social-security contributions (% GDP)

37,7

39,0

39,3

39,3

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