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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2017

Short-term forecast, 19 September 2017

The Dutch economy is flourishing. The Netherlands is a frontrunner in Europe, with growth figures of 3.3% (this year) and 2.5% (2018). Government finances are healthy. For both years, there is a budget surplus, and the government debt is below the maximum budget deficit set by the EU. In addition, the labour market is improving, which means it is tightening. For example, it is becoming more difficult for companies to find suitable personnel. This is the third forecast of 2017, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2018. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2017 and 2018.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release and the Macro Economic Outlook 2018.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2018

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2018.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2015-2018 (a)

International items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Relevant world trade volume goods
and services (%)

3.8

3.6

4.3

4.0

Export price competitors (goods and
services, non-commodities, %)

7.9

-3.7

0.6

0.0

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

51.9

43.3

49.3

49.5

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.14

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8


GDP and demand (volume)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

2.3

2.2

3.3

2.5

Consumption households (%)

2.0

1.6

2.2

2.4

Consumption general government (%)

-0.2

1.2

0.6

1.6

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

11.2

3.1

6.3

4.8

Exports of goods and services (%)

6.5

4.3

4.9

4.5

Imports of goods and services (%)

8.4

4.1

4.5

5.1


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.8

0.6

1.1

1.6

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

1.5

-0.9

1.0

0.3

Import price goods (%)

-5.4

-4.4

3.6

-0.5

Inflation, harmonised index of
consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.2

0.1

1.3

1.3

Compensation per hour private sector (%)

-0.2

0.6

2.2

3.2

Contractual wages private sector (%)

1.2

1.5

1.6

2.2

Purchasing power, static, median,
all households (%)

1.0

2.7

0.3

0.6


Labour market
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour force (%)

0.4

0.4

0.8

1.1

Active labour force (%)

1.0

1.3

2.0

1.7

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

614

538

440

390

Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)

6.9

6.0

4.9

4.3

Employment (hours, %)

0.6

2.0

2.0

1.6


Other items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour share in enterprise income
(level in %)

72.2

72.9

72.5

73.0

Labour productivity private sector
(per hour, %)

1.5

0.4

1.5

1.0

Private savings (% of disposable
household income)

-0.4

0.3

0.3

0.5

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.3

8.7

8.8

8.5


Public sector
  2015 2016 2017 2018
General government financial balance
(% GDP)

-2.1

0.4

0.6

0.8

Gross debt general government
(% GDP)

64.6

61.8

57.2

53.7

Taxes and social security contributions
(% GDP)

37.3

38.7

38.8

38.9

Gross government expenditure
(% GDP)

45.2

43.8

43.0

42.5

(a) CPB uses as of MEV 2018 a new method for the calculation of the labour share in enterprise income. This new method takes better account of the income of self-employed persons and therefore better matches current economic reality. A joint 'notitie' of CBS, CPB and DNB is available on this subject (only in Dutch).

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