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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2010: Moderate growth in uncertain times

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 14 December 2010

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1¾% in 2010. GDP growth will decrease slightly to 1½% during the coming year. According to the economic forecast, unemployment will decrease to 5% of the labour force on average in 2011. Inflation is forecast to be 1¼% this year and 1½% next year.

Main conclusions of CPB’s short-term forecasts December 2010

  • The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1¾% in 2010. Next year, GDP growth decelerates somewhat, to 1½%.
  • The estimated average unemployment rate falls from 5½% of the labour force this year to 5% in 2011.
  • The government budget defi cit will be 5.8% GDP this year and will decrease to 4.1% GDP in 2011.
  • Inflation is expected to be moderate in both forecasting years: 1¼% and 1½% respectively. Contractual wage growth in the marketsector will come out at 1% this year and 1½% next year.
  • The outlook is subject to high uncertainty, due to the ongoing turmoil on financial markets, among others.

Read here the accompanying press release.

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The table 'Extended main economic indicators'

International items
 2008200920102011
Relevant world trade volume (%)

1.5

-13.4

10 3/4

4 3/4

Import price goods (%)

4.6

-7.5

6 1/2

1/2

Export price competitors (%)

3.8

-3.1

4 1/4

3/4

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

96.9

61.5

79

84

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.47

1.39

1.33

1.39

Long-term interest rate (%)

4.3

3.7

3

3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2008200920102011
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.9

-3.9

1 3/4

1 1/2

Private consumption (%)

1.1

-2.5

1/4

3/4

Public demand (%)

3.0

4.0

1 1/4

-1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

7.1

-18.2

-3 3/4

2 3/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

1.2

-9.2

12 3/4

6 1/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

-1.4

-10.5

7 1/2

2 1/2

re-exports (%)

3.8

-7.9

17 3/4

9 1/4

Imports of goods (%)

3.3

-10.3

12 1/2

5

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

596.2

572.0

590

607

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2008200920102011
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

2.1

-5.3

3 3/4

1/4

Price competitiveness (%)

-0.2

4.1

-1 3/4

1/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.5

1.2

1 1/4

1 1/2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.2

1.0

1

1 1/2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

2.4

-0.2

1 1/2

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

2.1

0.9

1 1/4

1 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

3.5

2.7

1

1 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

3.5

2.0

2

3 1/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

31500

32500

32500

32500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-0.5

1.9

-1 1/4

-1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

0.1

1.8

-1/4

-1/4

Labour market
 2008200920102011
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16446

16530

16615

16680

Labour force (15-64)
(x 1000 pers.)

7801

7846

7815

7845

Employed labour force
(15-64) (x 1000 pers.)

7501

7469

7390

7445

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

300

377

425

400

Labour force
(15-64) (%)

1.9

0.6

-1/2

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-64) (%)

2.6

-0.4

-1

3/4

Unemployment rate (%)

3.8

4.8

5 1/2

5

Idem, international
definition (%)

3.1

3.7

4 1/2

4 1/4

Market sector
 2008200920102011
Production (%)

1.7

-5.4

1 1/4

2

Labour productivity (%)

0.5

-3.1

3 1/2

1 1/2

Employment (labour years) (%)

1.2

-2.4

-2 1/4

1/2

Price gross value added (%)

0.7

2.6

2

1/2

Real labour costs (%)

2.8

-0.6

0

3

Labour share in
enterprise income (level in %)

79.0

80.9

77 3/4

78 1/2

Profit share (of
domestic production)
(level in %)

13.8

7.7

10

10 1/4

General government
 2008200920102011
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

0.6

-5.4

-5.8

-4.1

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

58.2

60.8

64.6

66.9

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

39.1

38.2

38.2

38.8

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2011

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 to 2011.

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