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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2011: The Netherlands in a recession

Short-term forecast, 13 December 2011

The Dutch economy is in recession. In 2012, GDP is expected to decline by ½ percent, while the unemployment level increases by 90.000 persons, to 5¼ percent of the labour force. The budget deficit goes down to 4.1% in 2012, which is less than previously expected due to the worsened economic prospects.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

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The table 'Extended main economic indicators'

International items
 2009201020112012
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

-13.4

11.1

3 3/4

-3/4

Import price goods (%)

-7.3

7.3

5

1 3/4

Export price competitors (%)

-4.8

7.7

5 1/2

0

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

61.5

79.5

112

112

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.33

1.40

1.38

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.7

3.0

2.9

2.7

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2009201020112012
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

-3.5

1.7

1 1/2

-1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

571.1

588.4

604

613

Private consumption (%)

-2.6

0.4

-3/4

-1/2

Public demand (%)

4.8

0.7

0

-1

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-12.4

-1.4

6 1/4

-6

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

-9.3

12.8

5 1/4

-1/2

of which domestically
produced (%)

-10.5

9.4

2 1/2

-1 1/4

re-exports (%)

-8.2

15.8

7 1/2

0

Imports of goods (%)

-9.7

12.6

3 1/2

-1 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2009201020112012
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

-5.2

4.4

1

1/4

Price competitiveness (%)

1.9

1.8

1

1/2

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.2

1.3

2 1/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

1.0

0.9

2 1/2

2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

-0.4

1.3

1 1/4

1 3/4

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.7

1.4

1 1/4

2 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

2.7

1.0

1 1/2

1 3/4

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.2

1.5

2 1/2

3 1/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

32500

33000

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

1.8

-1.3

-1 1/2

-2

Purchasing power, static,
(median, all households) (%)

1.7

-0.5

-1

-1 1/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2009201020112012
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16530

16615

16690

16765

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8772

8748

8735

8815

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8445

8358

8345

8340

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

327

390

385

475

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.7

-0.3

1/4

-1/2

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.3

-1/4

1

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.1

-1.0

-1/4

0

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

3.7

4.5

4 1/2

5 1/4

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

4.8

5.4

5 1/2

6 1/2

Market sector
 2009201020112012
Production (%)

-5.1

1.3

2

-3/4

Labour productivity (%)

-3.0

3.0

2

1/2

Employment (labour years) (%)

-2.2

-1.6

0

-1

Price gross value added (%)

2.5

2.2

1/4

1 1/4

Real labour costs (%)

-0.3

-0.6

2 1/4

2 1/4

Labour share in
enterprise income (level in %)

81.1

78.7

78 1/4

79 3/4

Profit share (of
domestic production)
(level in %)

7.5

7.7

9 1/2

7 1/2

General government
 2009201020112012
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.6

-5.1

-4.6

-4.1

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

60.8

62.9

65.2

68.2

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.3

38.8

38.3

38.9

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2012

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2012.

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