CPBs short-term forecasts December 2011: The Netherlands in a recession
The Dutch economy is in recession. In 2012, GDP is expected to decline by ½ percent, while the unemployment level increases by 90.000 persons, to 5¼ percent of the labour force. The budget deficit goes down to 4.1% in 2012, which is less than previously expected due to the worsened economic prospects.
- Main Conclusions
- The table 'Extended main economic indicators'
- Graph 'Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2012'
- Related Publication
- Appendix : Main Economic Indicators for the Netherlands, 1970-2012
- Appendix : Key data for the world economy and external data for the Netherlands, 1975-2012
Main conclusions
Read the accompanying press release.
The table 'Extended main economic indicators'
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relevant world trade (vol. %) | -13.4 | 11.1 | 3 3/4 | -3/4 |
| Import price goods (%) | -7.3 | 7.3 | 5 | 1 3/4 |
| Export price competitors (%) | -4.8 | 7.7 | 5 1/2 | 0 |
| Crude oil price (Brent, $) | 61.5 | 79.5 | 112 | 112 |
| Exchange rate (dollar p euro) | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.38 |
| Long-term interest rate (level in %) | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth) (%) | -3.5 | 1.7 | 1 1/2 | -1/2 |
| Value gross domestic product (GDP) (bln euro) | 571.1 | 588.4 | 604 | 613 |
| Private consumption (%) | -2.6 | 0.4 | -3/4 | -1/2 |
| Public demand (%) | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0 | -1 |
| Gross fixed investment, private non-residential (%) | -12.4 | -1.4 | 6 1/4 | -6 |
| Exports of goods (non-energy) (%) | -9.3 | 12.8 | 5 1/4 | -1/2 |
| of which domestically produced (%) | -10.5 | 9.4 | 2 1/2 | -1 1/4 |
| re-exports (%) | -8.2 | 15.8 | 7 1/2 | 0 |
| Imports of goods (%) | -9.7 | 12.6 | 3 1/2 | -1 1/2 |
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export price goods (excluding energy) (%) | -5.2 | 4.4 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Price competitiveness (%) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Consumer prices (CPI) (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 1/4 | 2 |
| Consumer prices (harmonised, HICP) (%) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2 1/2 | 2 |
| Price of gross domestic product (%) | -0.4 | 1.3 | 1 1/4 | 1 3/4 |
| Price of national expenditure (%) | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1 1/4 | 2 1/2 |
| Contractual wages market sector (%) | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1 1/2 | 1 3/4 |
| Compensation per full-time employee market sector (%) | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 1/2 | 3 1/4 |
| Gross wage Jones family (in euro's) | 32500 | 32500 | 33000 | 33000 |
| Purchasing power (Jones, one-income household) (%) | 1.8 | -1.3 | -1 1/2 | -2 |
| Purchasing power, static, (median, all households) (%) | 1.7 | -0.5 | -1 | -1 1/4 |
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (x 1000 pers.) | 16530 | 16615 | 16690 | 16765 |
| Labour force (15-74) (x 1000 pers.) | 8772 | 8748 | 8735 | 8815 |
| Employed labour force (15-74) (x 1000 pers.) | 8445 | 8358 | 8345 | 8340 |
| Unemployment (x 1000 pers.) | 327 | 390 | 385 | 475 |
| Employed Persons (15-74) (%) | -0.7 | -0.3 | 1/4 | -1/2 |
| Labour force (15-74) (%) | 0.7 | -0.3 | -1/4 | 1 |
| Employed labour force (15-74) (%) | 0.1 | -1.0 | -1/4 | 0 |
| Unemployment rate (% labour force) | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4 1/2 | 5 1/4 |
| Idem, national definition (% labour force) | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5 1/2 | 6 1/2 |
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (%) | -5.1 | 1.3 | 2 | -3/4 |
| Labour productivity (%) | -3.0 | 3.0 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Employment (labour years) (%) | -2.2 | -1.6 | 0 | -1 |
| Price gross value added (%) | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1/4 | 1 1/4 |
| Real labour costs (%) | -0.3 | -0.6 | 2 1/4 | 2 1/4 |
| Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) | 81.1 | 78.7 | 78 1/4 | 79 3/4 |
| Profit share (of domestic production) (level in %) | 7.5 | 7.7 | 9 1/2 | 7 1/2 |
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General government financial balance (% GDP) | -5.6 | -5.1 | -4.6 | -4.1 |
| Gross debt general government (% GDP) | 60.8 | 62.9 | 65.2 | 68.2 |
| Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP) | 38.3 | 38.8 | 38.3 | 38.9 |
Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2012
Related publication
Attachments
Main Economic Indicators for the Netherlands (Spreadsheet, 61 KB)
Key data for the world economy and external data for the Netherlands (Spreadsheet, 70 KB)
Alert
New short-term forecast
If you subscribe to our short-term forecast alert service, you will receive an email every time CPB publishes a new Short-term forecast (CPB Data).
Read more
