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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2012

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 19 December 2012

In 2013, GDP is expected to decline by ½ percent, while the unemployment level increases to 6 percent of the labour force. The budget deficit goes down to 3.3% in 2013. Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the fourth forecast of 2012.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2010-2013

International items
 2010201120122013
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

11.3

4.0

1/4

2 1/2

Import price goods (%)

7.3

4.9

2 3/4

-3/4

Export price competitors (%)

7.9

6.3

2 3/4

-1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

79.5

111.3

112

112

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.33

1.39

1.29

1.30

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

2.9

2.0

2.2

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2010201120122013
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.6

1.0

-1

-1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

588.7

602.0

604

609

Private consumption (%)

0.3

-1.0

-1 1/2

-1 1/2

Public demand (%)

0.3

-0.6

-1

-1/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-5.2

10.2

-3 1/4

-3

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

13.5

4.3

2 1/2

3

of which domestically
produced (%)

9.7

3.8

-1 3/4

1 3/4

re-exports (%)

17.0

4.7

6 1/4

4

Imports of goods (%)

12.2

4.1

2

1 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2010201120122013
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

4.3

1.4

1/4

-1

Price competitiveness (%)

2.3

0.8

2 1/2

1

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.3

2.3

2 1/2

2 3/4

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

0.9

2.5

2 3/4

2 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.2

1 1/4

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.2

0.8

2

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.0

1.4

1 3/4

2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.7

2.1

3 1/4

2 1/2

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

33000

33000

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-1.2

-2 1/4

-1 1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-0.5

-0.9

-2

-1 1/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2010201120122013
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16615

16693

16755

16820

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8748

8746

8880

8935

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8358

8357

8410

8410

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

390

389

470

525

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.4

0.7

-1/4

-1/2

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

0.0

1 1/2

3/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

-1.0

0.0

3/4

0

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

4.4

5 1/4

6

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

5.4

6 1/2

7 1/4

Market sector
 2010201120122013
Production (%)

1.1

1.4

-2

-1/2

Labour productivity (%)

2.9

1.0

-1 1/2

1

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

-1.8

0.4

-1/2

-1 1/2

Price gross value added (%)

2.0

0.3

1 1/4

-1/4

Real labour costs (%)

-0.3

1.8

2

2 3/4

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

78.7

81 3/4

83 1/4

General government
 2010201120122013
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.1

-4.5

-3.8

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

63.1

65.5

71.0

72.9

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.8

38.4

38.9

40.1

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