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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2013

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 17 December 2013

A slow climb out of recession is projected for the Dutch economy, with a ½% growth next year. Recovery of the labour market will take a little longer, with unemployment projected to increase to 7½% in 2014. Inflation, with 1½%, will remain below the target level of the European Central Bank, while median purchasing power increases by 1%.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014 (17 dec 2013)

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade
 (vol. %)

4.0

0.7

1 1/2

3 3/4

Import price goods (%)

5.1

2.7

-1 1/2

-3/4

Export price competitors
(%)

6.3

4.1

-1 1/2

-1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

109

109

Exchange rate
(dollar p euro)

1.39

1.28

1.33

1.36

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

1.9

2.0

2.4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth)
(%)

0.9

-1.2

-1

1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

599.0

599.3

603

611

Private consumption (%)

-1.1

-1.6

-2

-3/4

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.8

-1 1/4

1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential
(%)

12.3

-2.9

-6 1/4

4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.4

1.9

1/2

4

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

0.7

-3/4

2 3/4

re-exports (%)

4.9

3.0

1 3/4

5 1/4

Imports of goods (%)

4.7

3.6

-3/4

3 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

2.1

0.8

0

-1/2

Price competitiveness (%)

-0.2

2.4

-3 1/4

-1/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 1/2

1 1/2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

2 1/2

1 1/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.3

1 3/4

3/4

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.7

1.8

1 1/2

1

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.6

1 1/2

1 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.9

1.7

1 1/2

3

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

32500

33500

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.4

-1

1

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16795

16840

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8878

8950

8980

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8345

8320

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

469

605

665

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.2

-1

-1/2

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

3/4

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-3/4

-1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

6 3/4

7 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

8 1/2

9

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.9

-1 3/4

3/4

Labour productivity (%)

0.9

-1.7

-3/4

1 1/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.5

-0.2

-1

-1/2

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.7

1 1/4

3/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.6

0.0

1/4

2 1/4

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

79.0

80.5

81

82

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.3

-4.1

-3.1

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.7

71.3

74.6

75.6

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.6

39.0

39.6

40.6

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2014.

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