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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2014

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Short-term forecast, 11 December 2014

Economic growth is projected to increase next year to 1½% GDP. Although the recovery remains fragile, consumption will grow more than this year. Employment will increase, with unemployment levels decreasing to 6½%. Inflation will remain low, in line with European price developments, and the chances of long-term deflation are slim.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015

International items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Relevant world trade volume
(%)

0.7

1.7

2 3/4

4

Export price competitors (%)

4.1

-2.1

-1 3/4

1

Crude oil price (Brent,
level in dollars
per barrel)

111.7

108.7

100

77

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.28

1.33

1.33

1.24

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.9

2.0

1.5

1.2

GDP and demand (volume)
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-1.6

-0.7

3/4

1 1/2

Consumption households (%)

-1.4

-1.6

0

1 1/4

Consumption general
government (%)

-1.6

-0.2

-1/4

0

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-5.8

-4.9

2 1/2

3 1/4

Exports of goods and
services (%)

3.3

2.0

4 1/4

4 1/2

Imports of goods and
services (%)

2.8

0.8

4 1/4

4 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Price gross domestic product
(%)

1.3

1.0

1

1/2

Export price domestically
produced goods
(non energy, %)

1.5

0.0

-1 3/4

-1

Import price goods (%)

3.4

-1.5

-3 1/2

-1 3/4

National consumer price
index (CPI, %)

2.5

2.5

1

1

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.6

1.2

1

1 1/4

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-2.0

-1.3

1 1/4

3/4

Labour market
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Labour force (%)

1.5

0.8

-1/2

1/2

Active labour force (%)

0.6

-0.7

-3/4

1

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

469

600

605

570

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

5.3

6.7

6 3/4

6 1/2

Market sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Production (%)

-1.8

-0.9

1 3/4

2

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

-1.2

0.6

1 3/4

1 1/4

Employment (labour years, %)

-0.6

-1.5

0

3/4

Compensation per employee
(%)

2.3

2.6

1 3/4

1/2

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

79.5

81.4

80 1/2

79 1/4

Other items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

0.0

0.6

2 1/2

2 1/4

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.8

8.5

8 3/4

9

Public sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.0

-2.3

-2.8

-1.8

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

66.5

68.6

69.2

69.6

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

36.3

37.2

37.8

37.8

Both the wage-rate market sector, labour-income share and the private savings are biased upward for 2014 and 2015, due to the measure to limit the use of a so-called Stamrecht bv (severance pay insurance fund). Severance payments will be paid directly to the person involved, instead of into such a fund. After the revision of the National Accounts, severance payments are registered as employers' social security contributions. This translates into a non-recurring increase of the wage rate in 2014 which affects the development of the wages in the private sector well over 0.5% points.

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2015

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2015.

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