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CPBs short-term forecasts December 2015

Short-term forecast, 11 December 2015

Economic growth is projected to increase to 2.1%. This growth will be carried by increasing household consumption and investments, and rising export levels. The restrictions on natural gas production in Groningen are projected to slow down growth by 0.2%. This is the fourth forecast made in 2015.

Main conclusions

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Fan Charts

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Table 'Main economic indicators', 2013-2016

International items
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Relevant world trade volume
goods and services (%)

2.2

3.9

3.3

4.3

Export price competitors
(goods and services,
non-commodities, %)

-3.2

-1.3

5.7

0.7

Crude oil price
(dollar per barrel)

108.7

99.0

53.2

50.3

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.33

1.33

1.11

1.07

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

2.0

1.5

0.7

0.8

GDP and demand (volume)
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-0.5

1.0

2.0

2.1

Consumption households (%)

-1.4

0.0

1.7

2.2

Consumption general
government (%)

0.1

0.3

-0.2

1.4

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-5.3

2.7

7.1

6.8

Exports of goods and
services (%)

2.1

4.0

4.7

4.4

Imports of goods and
services (%)

0.9

4.0

5.4

5.9

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Price gross domestic product (%)

1.4

0.8

0.7

1.3

Export price goods and
services (non-energy, %)

0.5

-0.7

1.4

0.5

Import price goods (%)

-1.6

-3.1

-4.5

-1.2

Inflation, harmonised index
of consumer prices (hicp, %)

2.6

0.3

0.3

0.9

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.2

1.0

1.2

1.6

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-1.3

1.4

0.9

1.8

Labour market
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Labour force (%)

0.8

-0.4

0.5

0.8

Active labour force (%)

-0.8

-0.6

1.1

1.1

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

647

660

615

600

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

7.3

7.4

6.9

6.7

Market sector
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Production (%)

-1.2

1.9

2.8

2.7

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

-0.2

1.8

1.6

1.4

Employment (labour years, %)

-1.0

0.1

1.2

1.3

Compensation per employee (%)

1.7

1.9

0.6

2.6

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

79.6

79.2

76.6

76.7

Other items
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

-0.4

0.8

0.9

1.0

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

11.0

10.6

10.9

10.8

Public sector
  2013 2014 2015 2016
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-2.4

-2.4

-2.2

-1.8

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

67.9

68.2

66.6

65.4

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

36.6

37.5

37.0

37.0

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2016

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2016.

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