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CPBs short-term forecasts June 2012: economic growth on a low level until 2017

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 14 June 2012

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and the world economy. This is the second forecast made in 2012.

Figures up to 2017 are published in CPB Policy Brief 2012/01 'Juniraming 2012' (only in Dutch).

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2010-2013

International items
 2010201120122013
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

11.3

4.0

1 1/4

4 1/2

Import price goods (%)

7.3

5.1

3 1/4

1 1/4

Export price competitors (%)

7.9

6.3

2 1/2

1 1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

79.5

111.3

120

120

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.33

1.39

1.31

1.32

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

2.9

2.1

2.5

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2010201120122013
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.7

1.3

-3/4

3/4

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

588.4

602.4

606

623

Private consumption (%)

0.4

-1.1

-1/2

-1/4

Public demand (%)

0.7

0.4

-1

-3/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-1.4

7.5

-3 3/4

3 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

12.8

3.9

3

3 3/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

9.4

1.5

1 3/4

3 3/4

re-exports (%)

15.8

5.9

4

4

Imports of goods (%)

12.6

4.0

3 3/4

2 1/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2010201120122013
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

4.4

1.5

1/4

1 1/4

Price competitiveness (%)

1.9

2.5

2 1/4

1/2

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.3

2.3

2 1/2

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

0.9

2.5

3

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.3

1.1

1 1/2

2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.4

0.9

2 1/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.0

1.4

1 3/4

2 1/4

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.5

2.5

3 1/4

2 3/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

33000

33000

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.3

-1.4

-2 1/2

-1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-0.6

-1.0

-2

-3/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2010201120122013
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16615

16691

16765

16830

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8748

8744

8865

8905

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8358

8357

8395

8370

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

390

387

470

535

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

0.3

-1/4

-1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

0.0

1 1/4

1/2

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

-1.0

0.0

1/2

-1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

4.4

5 1/4

6

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

5.4

6 1/4

7

Market sector
 2010201120122013
Production (%)

1.3

2.0

-1 1/2

1 1/4

Labour productivity (%)

3.0

1.9

-1

2 1/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

-1.6

0.1

-1/2

-1

Price gross value added (%)

2.2

0.1

1/4

1/2

Real labour costs (%)

-0.6

2.5

2 3/4

2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

78.6

82 1/4

81 3/4

General government
 2010201120122013
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.1

-4.7

-3.8

-2.9

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

62.9

65.2

71.7

72.9

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.8

38.3

39.0

39.9

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2013

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2013.

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