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CPBs short-term forecasts June 2013

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 13 June 2013

The Dutch economy this year is projected to fall by 1%. For next year, a slight recovery is projected, leading to a 1% increase in GDP. The budget deficit by 2014 is expected to be 3.7%. This is the second forecast made in 2013.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014 (June 2013)

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

4.0

0.8

2

4 1/4

Import price goods (%)

4.9

2.8

-2 1/4

1/2

Export price competitors (%)

6.3

4.3

-1/4

1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

105

102

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.28

1.31

1.30

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

2.9

1.9

1.6

1.8

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.0

-0.9

-1

1

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

602.0

602.9

607

620

Private consumption (%)

-1.0

-1.4

-1 1/4

0

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.3

-1/2

3/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

10.2

-2.9

-10

2

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.3

1.8

3 1/4

4 1/2

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

0.2

2 1/4

3 1/2

re-exports (%)

4.7

3.3

4

5 1/2

Imports of goods (%)

4.1

3.5

3/4

4 1/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

1.4

0.6

-1 1/4

1/2

Price competitiveness (%)

0.9

3.8

1

1/2

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 1/2

1 3/4

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

2 3/4

1 1/2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.2

1.0

1 1/2

1

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.8

1.9

1 3/4

1 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.6

1 1/2

1 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.1

1.7

1 3/4

2 1/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

32500

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-2.5

-1 1/2

-1

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.5

-1 1/4

1/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16800

16845

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8879

8960

9010

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8360

8375

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

470

600

635

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.1

-3/4

0

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

1

1/2

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-1/2

1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

6 3/4

7

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

8 1/4

8 3/4

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.6

-1 1/2

1 1/4

Labour productivity (%)

1.0

-1.1

-1/4

1 3/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.4

-0.5

-1 1/4

-1/2

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.4

1/2

1 1/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.8

0.3

1 1/4

1

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

80.0

81

80 1/4

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.5

-4.1

-3.5

-3.7

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.5

71.2

74.6

76.3

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.4

38.8

39.9

40.2

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2014.

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