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CPB's short-term forecasts June 2014

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 16 June 2014

The Dutch economy is projected to grow by ¾% this year, and a slight increase in GDP growth up to 1¼% is projected for next year. Inflation will be low in both years. The EMU deficit is expected to reach 2.2% in 2015. This is the second forecast made in 2014.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015 (June 2014)

International items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Relevant world trade volume
(%)

0.7

1.7

3 1/2

5

Export price competitors (%)

4.1

-2.0

-1

3/4

Crude oil price (Brent,
level in dollars
per barrel)

111.7

108.7

108

108

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.28

1.33

1.38

1.38

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

GDP and demand (volume)
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-1.2

-0.9

3/4

1 1/4

Consumption households (%)

-1.6

-2.1

-1/4

3/4

Consumption general
government (%)

-0.7

-0.9

-1/4

0

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-2.7

-6.2

4 3/4

2 1/4

Exports of goods and
services (%)

3.2

1.4

3

4

Imports of goods and
services (%)

3.3

-0.2

3 1/4

3 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Price gross domestic product
(%)

1.3

1.7

1/2

1 1/4

Export price domestically
produced goods
(non energy, %)

1.7

0.6

-1/2

3/4

Import price goods (%)

2.7

-1.7

-1 1/4

3/4

National consumer price
index (CPI, %)

2.5

2.5

1 1/4

1 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.6

1.5

1 1/4

1 3/4

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-2.1

-1.2

1 1/2

1/4

Labour market
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Labour force (%)

1.5

0.8

-1/2

1/4

Active labour force (%)

0.6

-0.7

-1

1/2

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

469

600

650

635

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

5.3

6.7

7 1/4

7 1/4

Market sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Production (%)

-1.9

-1.3

1 1/2

1 3/4

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

-1.7

-0.3

1 3/4

1 1/4

Employment (labour years, %)

-0.2

-1.0

-1/4

1/2

Compensation per employee
(%)

1.7

2.4

3 1/4

1 1/2

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

80.5

81.1

82

81 1/2

Other items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

-2.0

-1.0

-1/2

0

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

7.7

9.6

9 1/4

10 1/4

Public sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.1

-2.5

-2.9

-2.2

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

71.3

73.3

74.6

74.9

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

39.0

39.7

40.8

40.3

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2015

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2015.

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