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CPBs short-term forecasts March 2012: moderate economic recovery after 2012

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 20 March 2012

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and the world economy. This is the first forecast of 2012, CPB's Central Economic Plan 2012. With this publication, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release (CEP 2012).

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2015

International items
 20112012201320142015
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

4.0

-1 3/4

4 1/2

6

6

Import price goods (%)

5.5

2 1/2

1/4

0

-1/4

Export price competitors (%)

5.8

3 1/2

-1/4

1/2

1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111

111

111

111

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.29

1.29

1.29

1.29

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

2.9

2.3

2.7

3.0

3.3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 20112012201320142015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.2

-3/4

1 1/4

1 1/2

1 1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

603.6

609

627

647

669

Private consumption (%)

-0.9

-1/2

1/2

1/2

1/4

Public demand (%)

0.6

-1

0

-1/4

-1/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

7.2

-3 1/4

7 1/2

6 3/4

5 1/2

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.3

-1 3/4

3 3/4

6 1/4

6 3/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

1.8

-1/2

3 1/2

4

4

re-exports (%)

6.3

-3

4

8 1/4

9 1/4

Imports of goods (%)

3.7

-1 3/4

3 1/4

5

5 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 20112012201320142015
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

1.7

1/2

1/4

-1/4

-1/4

Price competitiveness (%)

-0.7

2 1/4

-3/4

0

0

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2 1/4

1 3/4

2

2 1/4

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2 1/4

1 1/2

1 3/4

2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.4

1 3/4

1 1/2

1 3/4

1 3/4

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.2

2 1/4

1 3/4

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1 3/4

1 1/2

2

2 1/4

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.5

3 1/4

1 1/2

2 1/2

2 1/2

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33000

33000

33000

34000

34500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.4

-2 1/4

-1/2

-1 1/2

-2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-1 3/4

0

-1/2

-1/2

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 20112012201320142015
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16690

16765

16835

16835

16835

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8890

8915

8915

8930

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8395

8370

8375

8435

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

500

545

535

495

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

-1/4

0

1/4

3/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1 3/4

1/4

0

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

1/2

-1/4

0

3/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

5 1/2

6

6

5 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6 3/4

7 1/4

7 1/4

6 1/2

Market sector
 20112012201320142015
Production (%)

1.8

-1 1/2

1 3/4

2

2

Labour productivity (%)

1.5

-3/4

2 1/2

2 1/4

1 1/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.2

-3/4

-3/4

0

1/2

Price gross value added (%)

0.5

3/4

1

1

1/2

Real labour costs (%)

2.0

2 1/4

1/4

1 1/2

2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.6

81 1/2

79 1/4

78 1/2

79

General government
 20112012201320142015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.0

-4.6

-4.6

-4.1

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.6

70.2

73.0

75.0

76.0

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.2

38.8

38.6

39.0

39.3

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