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CPBs short-term forecasts March 2013

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 13 March 2013

The contracting economy in the Netherlands in 2013 largely will be the result of lagging domestic consumption levels. The fragile growth projected for 2014 almost entirely will be due to the recovering world trade. CPB publishes forecasts of the Dutch economy and the world economy, this time published in the Central Economic Plan 2013.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

4.0

0.5

2 3/4

5

Import price goods (%)

4.9

2.6

-1 1/4

3/4

Export price competitors (%)

6.3

2.4

-1/2

3/4

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

109

109

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.29

1.31

1.31

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

2.9

1.9

2.0

2.3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.0

-0.9

-1/2

1

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

602.0

602.8

610

626

Private consumption (%)

-1.0

-1.5

-1 1/2

1/4

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.2

-1/4

1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

10.2

-2.5

1/2

2 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.3

2.2

3 1/4

5

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

-0.3

2 1/2

3 3/4

re-exports (%)

4.7

4.5

4 1/4

6

Imports of goods (%)

4.1

3.4

2

4 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

1.4

0.6

-3/4

3/4

Price competitiveness (%)

0.9

1.9

1/2

1/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 3/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

2 3/4

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.2

1.1

1 1/2

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.8

1.8

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.7

1 3/4

2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.1

2.2

2 1/4

2 3/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

33000

33500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-2.5

-1 1/2

-3/4

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.5

-1 1/4

3/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16800

16845

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8879

8940

8970

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8380

8395

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

470

560

575

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.2

-1/2

0

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

3/4

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-1/4

1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

6 1/4

6 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

7 3/4

7 3/4

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.8

-1/2

1 1/4

Labour productivity (%)

1.0

-1.4

1/2

1 1/2

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.4

-0.4

-1

-1/4

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.7

0

1 1/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.8

0.5

2 1/4

1 1/2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

80.4

81 1/2

81 1/4

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.5

-4.0

-3.3

-3.4

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.5

71.4

74.0

75.0

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.4

38.8

39.9

40.1

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2014.

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