Kopafbeelding cijfers CPB

CPBs short-term forecasts March 2014

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 18 March 2014

The Dutch economy is slowly on the path to recovery, in the slipstream of the euro zone, with a projected ¾% this year and 1¼ % for 2015. For the current year, unemployment is expected to increase further up to 650,000 people, but will decline again, slightly, next year, as a result of improving employment opportunities.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015 (CEP 2014, 18 March 2014)

International items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Relevant world trade volume
(%)

0.7

1.9

4 1/4

5

Export price competitors (%)

4.1

-1.6

-1

1/2

Crude oil price (Brent,
level in dollars
per barrel)

111.7

108.7

108

108

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.28

1.33

1.36

1.36

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.9

2.0

2.3

2.6

GDP and demand (volume)
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-1.2

-0.8

3/4

1 1/4

Consumption households (%)

-1.6

-2.1

-1/4

1/2

Consumption general
government (%)

-0.7

-0.5

1/2

-1/4

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-2.7

-7.1

4 3/4

3 1/4

Exports of goods and
services (%)

3.2

1.3

2 1/4

4 1/4

Imports of goods and
services (%)

3.3

-0.5

2 1/2

4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Price gross domestic product
(%)

1.3

1.8

3/4

1 1/4

Export price domestically
produced goods
(non energy, %)

1.7

0.8

-1/2

1/2

Import price goods (%)

2.7

-1.7

-1 1/4

3/4

National consumer price
index (CPI, %)

2.5

2.5

1 1/2

1 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.6

1.5

1 1/2

2

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-2.3

-1.1

1 1/4

1/4

Labour market
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Labour force (%)

1.5

0.8

-1/4

1/4

Active labour force (%)

0.6

-0.7

-1

1/2

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

469

602

650

635

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

5.3

6.7

7 1/4

7

Market sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Production (%)

-1.9

-1.5

1 3/4

2

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

-1.7

-0.5

2

1 1/4

Employment (labour years, %)

-0.2

-1.1

-1/4

3/4

Compensation per employee
(%)

1.7

2.2

3 1/2

1 3/4

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

80.5

81.1

81 1/2

80 1/2

Other items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

-2.0

-2.1

-1

-1/2

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

7.7

9.7

9 1/2

9 3/4

Public sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.1

-2.9

-2.9

-2.1

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

71.3

74.3

74.6

74.7

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

39.0

39.6

40.7

41.3

top

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2015

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2015.

top

Related publication

top

The revision of the National Accounts as previously announced by Statistics Netherlands has not been incorporated in this forecast. This will not be done until next September in the Macro Economic Outlook 2015.

Attachments

Share this page