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CPBs short-term forecasts March 2015

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 5 March 2015

For this year and the next, economic growth is projected to go up to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. The depreciation of the euro against the US dollar, together with a sizeable drop in oil prices, has positive effects on the Dutch economy. The recovery is steady and is as of this year also supported by domestic spending.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release and the Central Economic Plan 2015, a translation of chapter 1 of the Dutch publication.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2013-2016

International items
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Relevant world trade volume
goods and services (%)

2.5

2.4

4.3

4.9

Export price competitors
(goods and services,
non-commodities, %)

-2.4

-0.9

8.2

1.5

Crude oil price
(Brent, level in dollars per barrel)

108.7

99.0

53.4

62.1

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.33

1.33

1.13

1.13

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

2.0

1.5

0.5

0.5

GDP and demand (volume)
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-0.7

0.8

1.7

1.8

Consumption households (%)

-1.6

0.1

1.5

1.7

Consumption general
government (%)

-0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.1

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-5.3

1.5

3.8

4.5

Exports of goods and
services (%)

2.0

4.0

4.6

4.8

Imports of goods and
services (%)

0.8

3.8

4.9

5.3

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Price gross domestic product (%)

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.8

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

0.3

-0.2

1.3

1.3

Import price goods (%)

-1.5

-3.0

-5.2

3.1

Inflation, harmonised index
of consumer prices (hicp, %)

2.6

0.3

-0.1

0.9

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.4

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-1.3

1.4

1.2

0.0

Labour market
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Labour force (%)

0.8

-0.5

0.9

0.9

Active labour force (%)

-0.8

-0.6

1.1

1.1

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

647

656

645

635

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

7.3

7.4

7.2

7.0

Market sector
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Production (%)

-1.0

1.9

2.3

2.6

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

0.4

1.5

1.1

1.3

Employment (labour years, %)

-1.5

0.4

1.2

1.3

Compensation per employee (%)

2.6

2.0

0.5

2.4

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

81.4

80.4

78.2

78.4

Other items
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

0.6

2.5

3.1

1.9

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.5

9.6

10.0

9.5

Public sector
  2013 2014 2015 2016
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-2.3

-2.6

-1.8

-1.2

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

68.6

69.0

68.8

67.8

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

37.2

37.9

37.6

38.1

The revision of the National Accounts by Statistics Netherlands is incorporated in this outlook.

The wage-rate market sector, labour-income share as well as private savings are biased upward for 2014, 2015 and 2016, due to the measure to limit the use of a so-called Stamrecht bv (severance pay insurance fund). Severance payments will be paid directly to the person involved, instead of into such a fund. After the revision of the National Accounts, severance payments are registered as employers' social security contributions. This translates into a non-recurring increase of the wage rate in 2014 which affects the development of the wages in the private sector well over 0.5% points.

The revision of the Labour Force Survey (Statistics Netherlands) leads to higher unemployment (47,000 in 2013) and a lower active labour force (minus 80,000 in 2013). Therefore, the unemployment rate increases by 0.6 percentage point. In the other years the differences are similar.

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2016

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2016.

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