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CPBs short-term forecasts March 2016

Short-term forecast, 7 March 2016

The Dutch economy is recovering slowly but surely from the Great Recession and the euro crisis, with 1.8% growth this year and 2.0% next year. Inflation this year will be low (0.3%), due to lower oil and resource prices, and is projected to increase next year to 1.0%. This is the first forecast made in 2016.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2014-2017

International items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Relevant world trade volume
goods and services (%)

3.9

3.6

3.8

4.4

Export price competitors
(goods and services,
non-commodities, %)

-1.3

6.2

-1.3

0.2

Crude oil price
(dollar per barrel)

99.0

52.5

31.7

37.7

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.33

1.11

1.09

1.09

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.5

0.7

0.6

0.6

GDP and demand (volume)
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

1.0

1.9

1.8

2.0

Consumption households (%)

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.0

Consumption general
government (%)

0.3

-0.3

2.0

0.2

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

2.7

7.2

6.0

4.2

Exports of goods and
services (%)

4.0

4.2

3.6

4.1

Imports of goods and
services (%)

4.0

4.9

5.0

4.5

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.8

0.5

1.1

0.9

Export price goods and
services (non-energy, %)

-0.7

0.7

-0.8

0.5

Import price goods (%)

-3.1

-5.5

-7.3

1.8

Inflation, harmonised index
of consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.3

0.2

0.3

1.0

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.7

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

1.4

1.0

2.3

0.2

Labour market
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Labour force (%)

-0.4

0.4

0.3

1.2

Active labour force (%)

-0.6

1.0

0.7

1.5

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

660

614

580

570

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

7.4

6.9

6.5

6.3

Market sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Production (%)

1.9

2.7

2.3

2.6

Labour productivity
(hours, %)

1.4

1.3

0.8

1.4

Employment (hours, %)

0.5

1.4

1.4

1.2

Compensation per hour (%)

1.7

1.3

2.2

2.1

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

79.2

77.7

77.8

78.2

Other items
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

0.8

0.9

2.2

1.6

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

10.6

11.1

11.1

10.5

Public sector
  2014 2015 2016 2017
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-2.4

-1.9

-1.7

-1.2

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

68.2

66.3

65.4

64.1

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

37.5

37.5

37.5

37.7

CPB uses as of CEP 2016 hours worked instead of FTE as standard for labour input. This has implications for the figures on wage rates and employment. A CPB Background Document with more information is available (only in Dutch).

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2017

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2017.

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