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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2010: Hesitant recovery

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Short-term forecast, 21 September 2010

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and the world economy. This is the third forecast of 2010, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook 2011. With this publication, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2010 and 2011.

Main conclusions of CPB’s short-term forecasts September 2010

  • The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1¾% in 2010. Next year, GDP growth decelerates somewhat, to 1½%.
  • The estimated average unemployment rate rises to 5½% of the labour force in 2010 and remains at that level next year.
  • Inflation is expected to rise to 1¼% in 2010 and 1½% in 2011. Contractual wage growth in the market sector will come out at 1% and 1½% respectively.
  • Purchasing power of households (median) declines by ½% this year and by ¼% next year.
  • The government budget deficit will be 5.8% GDP this year. The deficit will decrease to 3.9% GDP in 2011.

Read here the accompanying press release.

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The table 'Extended main economic indicators'

International items
  2008 2009 2010 2011
Relevant world trade volume (%)

1,6

-12,6

9

5 1/4

Import price goods (%)

4,6

-7,5

6 3/4

3/4

Export price competitors (%)

3,9

-3,0

4

3/4

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

96,9

61,5

76

75

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1,47

1,39

1,29

1,25

Long-term interest rate (%)

4,3

3,7

3 1/4

3 3/4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
  2008 2009 2010 2011
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1,9

-3,9

1 3/4

1 1/2

Private consumption (%)

1,1

-2,5

1/2

3/4

Public demand (%)

3,0

4,0

1/2

-1/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

7,1

-18,2

-5 1/2

-2 3/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

1,2

-9,2

12 3/4

7 1/2

of which domestically
produced (%)

-1,4

-10,5

8 1/4

3

re-exports (%)

3,8

-7,9

16 3/4

11 1/4

Imports of goods (%)

3,3

-10,3

11 1/4

6

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

596,2

572,0

593

615

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2008 2009 2010 2011
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

2,1

-5,3

4 3/4

3/4

Price competitiveness (%)

-0,1

4,2

-2

1/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2,5

1,2

1 1/4

1 1/2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2,2

0,9

1

1 1/2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

2,4

-0,2

2

2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

2,1

0,9

1 1/2

1 3/4

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

3,5

2,7

1

1 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

3,5

2,0

2

3

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

31500

32500

32500

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-0,6

1,9

-1 1/4

-1/4

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

0,0

1,8

-1/2

-1/4

Labour market
  2008 2009 2010 2011
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16446

16532

16605

16660

Labour force (15-64)
(x 1000 pers.)

7801

7846

7805

7790

Employed labour force
(15-64) (x 1000 pers.)

7501

7469

7370

7350

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

300

377

435

435

Labour force
(15-64) (%)

1,9

0,6

-1/2

-1/4

Employed labour
force (15-64) (%)

2,6

-0,4

-1 1/4

-1/4

Unemployment rate (%)

3,8

4,8

5 1/2

5 1/2

Idem, international
definition (%)

2,8

3,4

4 1/4

4 1/4

Market sector
  2008 2009 2010 2011
Production (%)

1,7

-5,4

1 3/4

2

Labour productivity (%)

0,5

-3,1

4 1/4

2 1/4

Employment (labour years) (%)

1,2

-2,4

-2 1/4

-1/4

Price gross value added (%)

0,7

2,6

2 1/4

1

Real labour costs (%)

2,8

-0,6

0

2

Labour share in
enterprise income (level in %)

79,0

80,9

77 1/4

76 3/4

Profit share (of
domestic production)
(level in %)

13,8

7,7

11 3/4

13 1/2

General government
  2008 2009 2010 2011
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

0,6

-5,4

-5,8

-3,9

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

58,2

60,8

64,5

66,2

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

39,1

38,2

37,9

38,5

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2011

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 to 2011.

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