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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2011: Economic picture uncertain

Short-term forecast, 15 September 2011

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the third forecast of 2011, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2012. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2011 and 2012.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

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The table 'Extended main economic indicators'

International items
 2009201020112012
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

-13.4

11.1

4 1/4

3 1/2

Import price goods (%)

-7.3

7.3

7

-1/2

Export price competitors (%)

-4.8

7.7

3

0

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

61.5

79.5

110

106

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.33

1.42

1.43

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.7

3.0

3 1/4

3 1/4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2009201020112012
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

-3.5

1.7

1 1/2

1

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

571.1

588.4

605

623

Private consumption (%)

-2.6

0.4

0

1/4

Public demand (%)

4.8

0.7

0

-1 1/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-12.4

-1.4

9 1/4

3 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

-9.3

12.8

6 1/2

3 3/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

-10.5

9.4

2 1/2

2

re-exports (%)

-8.2

15.8

9 3/4

5

Imports of goods (%)

-9.7

12.6

6 1/4

2 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2009201020112012
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

-5.2

4.4

2 1/2

0

Price competitiveness (%)

1.9

1.8

-1 1/4

3/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.2

1.3

2 1/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

1.0

0.9

2 1/2

2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

-0.4

1.3

1 1/4

2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.7

1.4

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

2.7

1.0

1 1/2

2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.2

1.5

3 1/4

3 1/2

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

32500

32500

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

1.8

-1.3

-1 1/4

-1 1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

1.8

-0.4

-1

-1

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2009201020112012
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16530

16615

16690

16765

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8772

8748

8700

8730

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8445

8358

8335

8355

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

327

390

365

375

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.7

-0.3

1/4

1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.3

-1/2

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.1

-1.0

-1/4

1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

3.7

4.5

4 1/4

4 1/4

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

4.8

5.4

5

5 1/4

Market sector
 2009201020112012
Production (%)

-5.1

1.3

2 1/4

1

Labour productivity (%)

-2.9

2.9

3

1 1/4

Employment (labour years) (%)

-2.2

-1.6

-1/2

-1/4

Price gross value added (%)

2.5

2.2

0

1 1/2

Real labour costs (%)

-0.3

-0.6

3

2

Labour share in
enterprise income (level in %)

81.1

78.7

78 3/4

79 1/4

Profit share (of
domestic production)
(level in %)

7.6

7.8

8 1/4

7 1/2

General government
 2009201020112012
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.6

-5.1

-4.2

-2.9

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

60.8

62.9

64.6

65.6

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.3

38.8

38.6

39.2

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2012

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2012.

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