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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2012

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 18 September 2012

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the third forecast of 2012, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2013. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2012 and 2013. MEV 2013 is only available in Dutch but you can download an English translation of chapter 1.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release (MEV 2013).

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2010-2013

International items
 2010201120122013
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

11.3

4.0

1/4

3 1/2

Import price goods (%)

7.3

4.9

2

-1/4

Export price competitors (%)

7.9

6.3

3 1/2

1 1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

79.5

111.3

104

95

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.33

1.39

1.27

1.25

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

2.9

2.0

2.4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2010201120122013
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.6

1.0

-1/2

3/4

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

588.7

602.0

607

622

Private consumption (%)

0.3

-1.0

-1

0

Public demand (%)

0.3

-0.6

-3/4

-3/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-5.2

10.2

-2 3/4

3 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

13.5

4.3

4 1/4

4 1/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

9.7

3.8

-1/4

3 1/4

re-exports (%)

17.0

4.7

8 1/4

4 3/4

Imports of goods (%)

12.2

4.1

3 1/2

2 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2010201120122013
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

4.3

1.4

1

1

Price competitiveness (%)

2.2

0.8

3

1

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.3

2.3

2 1/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

0.9

2.5

2 1/2

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.2

1 1/4

1 3/4

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.2

0.8

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.0

1.4

1 3/4

2 1/4

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.7

2.1

3 1/4

2 3/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

33000

33000

33500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-1.2

-2 1/4

-1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-0.5

-0.9

-1 3/4

-3/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2010201120122013
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16615

16693

16755

16820

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8748

8744

8860

8890

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8357

8390

8365

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

391

387

470

520

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.4

0.7

0

-1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

0.0

1 1/4

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

-1.1

0.0

1/2

-1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

4.4

5 1/4

5 3/4

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.5

5.3

6 1/4

7

Market sector
 2010201120122013
Production (%)

1.1

1.4

-1 1/4

1

Labour productivity (%)

2.9

1.0

-1 1/4

2

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

-1.8

0.4

0

-1

Price gross value added (%)

2.0

0.3

1/2

3/4

Real labour costs (%)

-0.3

1.8

2 3/4

1 3/4

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

78.7

81 3/4

81 1/4

General government
 2010201120122013
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.1

-4.5

-3.7

-2.7

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

63.1

65.5

71.4

71.8

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.8

38.4

39.0

40.0

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2013

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