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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2013

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 15 September 2013

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the third forecast of 2013, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2014. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2013 and 2014. MEV 2014 is only available in Dutch but you can download an English translation of chapter 1.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014 (MEV 2014)

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade
(vol. %)

4.0

0.7

1 1/2

3 3/4

Import price goods (%)

5.1

2.7

-1 1/2

0

Export price competitors
(%)

6.3

4.1

1/4

1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

105

103

Exchange rate
(dollar p euro)

1.39

1.28

1.32

1.32

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

1.9

1.9

2.4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth)
(%)

0.9

-1.2

-1 1/4

1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

599.0

599.3

602

613

Private consumption (%)

-1.1

-1.6

-2 1/4

-1

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.8

-1 1/4

1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential
(%)

12.3

-2.9

-11

1 3/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.4

1.9

2 3/4

4 1/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

0.7

1

3 1/2

re-exports (%)

4.9

3.0

4 1/4

5

Imports of goods (%)

4.7

3.6

-1/4

4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

2.1

0.8

-1/2

1/2

Price competitiveness (%)

-0.2

2.4

1/2

3/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 3/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

3

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.3

1 1/2

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.7

1.8

1 3/4

1 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.6

1 1/2

1 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.9

1.8

1 1/4

3 1/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

32500

33500

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.4

-1 1/4

-1/2

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16795

16840

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8878

8950

9005

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8335

8320

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

469

615

685

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.2

-1

-1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

3/4

1/2

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-1

-1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

7

7 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

8 1/2

9 1/4

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.9

-1 3/4

1

Labour productivity (%)

1.0

-1.6

-1/2

1 3/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.5

-0.2

-1 1/4

-3/4

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.8

1/2

1 3/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.6

0.0

3/4

1 3/4

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

79.0

80.5

81 3/4

81 1/2

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.3

-4.1

-3.2

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.7

71.3

75.0

76.3

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.6

39.0

39.7

40.8

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2014.

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