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CPBs short-term forecasts September 2014

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 16 September 2014

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the third forecast of 2014, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2015. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2014 and 2015. MEV 2015 is only available in Dutch but you can download an English translation of chapter 1 soon.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015 (MEV 2015)

International items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Relevant world trade volume
(%)

0.7

1.7

2 1/2

4 1/2

Export price competitors (%)

4.1

-2.1

-1

1

Crude oil price (Brent,
level in dollars
per barrel)

111.7

108.7

108

107

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.28

1.33

1.36

1.35

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.8

GDP and demand (volume)
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-1.7

-0.7

3/4

1 1/4

Consumption households (%)

-1.4

-1.6

0

1

Consumption general
government (%)

-1.6

-0.2

-3/4

0

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-5.8

-4.9

2 3/4

3 1/4

Exports of goods and
services (%)

3.2

2.0

3 1/4

3 3/4

Imports of goods and
services (%)

2.8

0.8

3

3 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Price gross domestic product
(%)

1.3

1.0

1/2

1 1/4

Export price domestically
produced goods
(non energy, %)

1.8

-0.2

-3/4

3/4

Import price goods (%)

3.4

-1.5

-1 3/4

3/4

National consumer price
index (CPI, %)

2.5

2.5

1

1 1/4

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.6

1.2

1 1/4

1 1/2

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-2.1

-1.4

1 1/2

1/2

Labour market
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Labour force (%)

1.5

0.8

-1/2

1/4

Active labour force (%)

0.6

-0.7

-3/4

1/2

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

469

600

620

605

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

5.3

6.7

7

6 3/4

Market sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Production (%)

-1.9

-0.9

1 1/2

1 1/2

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

-1.3

-0.6

2

1 1/4

Employment (labour years, %)

-0.6

-1.5

-1/2

1/4

Compensation per employee
(%)

2.3

2.6

3

1 1/4

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

79.5

81.4

81 3/4

81

Other items
  2012 2013 2014 2015
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

0.0

0.6

2 1/4

2 1/4

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.8

8.5

8 1/2

8 3/4

Public sector
  2012 2013 2014 2015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.0

-2.3

-2.6

-2.2

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

66.5

68.6

69.7

70.2

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

36.3

37.2

38.1

37.7

Both the wage-rate market sector, labour-income share and the private savings are biased upward for 2014 and 2015, due to the measure to limit the use of a so-called Stamrecht bv (severance pay insurance fund). Severance payments will be paid directly to the person involved, instead of into such a fund. After the revision of the National Accounts, severance payments are registered as employers' social security contributions. This translates into a non-recurring increase of the wage rate in 2014 which affects the development of the wages in the private sector well over 0.5% points.

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2015

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2015.

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