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Preliminary table Main Economic Indicators 2012-2015 (14 August 2014)

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Short-term forecast, 14 August 2014

Table Main Economic Indicators 2012-2015 of the upcoming Macro Economic Outlook 2015 (up to and including 2015), to be published on 16 September.

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015  (14-8-2014)

International items
 2012201320142015
Relevant world trade volume
(%)

0.7

1.7

2 1/2

4 1/2

Export price competitors (%)

4.1

-2.1

-1

1

Crude oil price (Brent,
level in dollars
per barrel)

111.7

108.7

108

107

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.28

1.33

1.36

1.35

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.8

GDP and demand (volume)
 2012201320142015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-1.7

-0.7

3/4

1 1/4

Consumption households (%)

-1.4

-1.6

0

1

Consumption general
government (%)

-1.6

-0.2

-3/4

-1/4

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-5.8

-4.9

2 3/4

3

Exports of goods and
services (%)

3.2

2.0

3 1/4

3 3/4

Imports of goods and
services (%)

2.8

0.8

3

3 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2012201320142015
Price gross domestic product
(%)

1.3

1.0

1/2

1 1/4

Export price domestically
produced goods
(non energy, %)

1.8

-0.2

-3/4

3/4

Import price goods (%)

3.4

-1.5

-1 3/4

3/4

National consumer price
index (CPI, %)

2.5

2.5

1

1 1/4

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.6

1.2

1 1/4

1 1/2

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-2.1

-1.4

1 1/2

0

Labour market
 2012201320142015
Labour force (%)

1.5

0.8

-1/2

1/4

Active labour force (%)

0.6

-0.7

-3/4

1/2

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

469

600

620

605

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

5.3

6.7

7

6 3/4

Market sector
 2012201320142015
Production (%)

-1.9

-0.9

1 1/2

1 1/2

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

-1.3

-0.6

2

1

Employment (labour years, %)

-0.6

-1.5

-1/2

1/2

Compensation per employee
(%)

2.3

2.6

3

1

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

79.5

81.4

81 3/4

81

Other items
 2012201320142015
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

0.0

0.6

2 1/4

2

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.8

8.5

8 1/2

8 3/4

Public sector
 2012201320142015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.0

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

66.5

68.6

69.9

70.3

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

36.3

37.2

38.1

37.7

Both the wage-rate market sector, labour-income share and the private savings are biased upward for 2014 and 2015, due to the measure to limit the use of a so-called Stamrecht bv (severance pay insurance fund). Severance payments will be paid directly to the person involved, instead of into such a fund. After the revision of the National Accounts, severance payments are registered as employers' social security contributions. This translates into a non-recurring increase of the wage rate in 2014 which affects the development of the wages in the private sector well over 0.5% points.

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