Text press release
pdf document, 90.5 KB
Published: 16 August 2017
The Dutch economy is well on the rise, according to the latest projections by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. For this year, economic growth is projected to increase to 3.3%, thanks to a very strong second quarter. This would be the first time since the beginning of the crisis (2007) that growth is higher than 3%. For 2018, the economic outlook has also been revised upward, when CPB projects growth to reach 2.5%.
Go straight to the data.
The new figures for 2017 and 2018, published today in the preliminary version of the Macro Economic Outlook 2018 (cMEV), clearly provide a more positive image than those in the June projections. This is mainly attributed to the very favourable development of Dutch exports.
Main figures for 2017 and 2018
Because of the further improvement in the economy, unemployment is projected to decrease more rapidly, as well; down to 4.3% by 2018. Furthermore, the increasing budget surplus and strongly decreasing government debt represent healthy public finances. Despite the recently announced additional expenditure on nursing care, CPB projects a slight improvement in the EMU balance, for both 2017 (+0.1 percentage points of GDP) and 2018 (+0.2 percentage points). In addition, projections regarding the inflation (HICP) have been revised slightly downward. This is closely related to the lower oil price and stronger euro. Median purchasing power will increase in 2017 and 2018, by 0.3 % and 0.5%, respectively. For 2018, this is 0.3 percentage points more favourable than stated in the June projections, which is mainly due to the downward revision of the inflation figure.
Projections for the medium term: 2018 through 2021
Together with the cMEV, the medium-term outlook for 2018–2021 of March of this year has also been updated:
The sustainability balance — which indicates whether the government budget, under a continuation of the current level of regulations and services, will also be tenable in the long term — will be positive, at 0.2%. Compared to the March projections, this represents a decline of 0.3 percentage points. This alleviates the negative impact of the recently announced additional expenditure on nursing care — as the further improvement in economic growth, under unchanging expenditure over the medium term, will also lead to increased sustainability.
pdf document, 90.5 KB