Kopafbeelding publicaties CPB

Central Economic Plan 2017

CEP, 24 March 2017

Global economic growth is expected to accelerate this year and also slightly in the year thereafter; particularly due to growth increases in emerging economies. The global increase will also accelerate growth in relevant world trade to 3% this year, and 3.6% in 2018. This is a translation of chapter 1 of the Dutch publication.

Read the accompanying press release or go directly to the main indicators.

The growth of the Dutch economy is robust with 2.1% this year and 1.8% in 2018. This growth is mainly driven by consumption and exports. Economic growth is coupled with increases in employment in the market sector as well as in health care. For this year, unemployment is projected to be 4.9% of the labour force, and for next year this will be 4.7%. Influenced by higher energy prices, inflation will increase to 1.6% this year, and 1.4% the following year. The decrease in unemployment and increase in inflation will cause contract wages to rise. For both 2017 and 2018, a moderate increase in median static purchasing power is projected, for both 2017 and 2018, of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, following the 2.7% increase in 2016. Last year’s budget surplus is projected to increase further, to
0.8% of GDP by 2018, as continued economic growth will lead to higher revenues while government spending will lag behind.

The Dutch economy will grow with 1.7% on average in the period 2018-2021. The growth of labour supply and employment will be roughly equal, and hence unemployment will stabilise at 4,7%. Interest rates and inflation increase slightly, but remain low. The government budget balance will show a surplus of 1,3% in 2021 and government debt will decrease to 47% of GDP. The sustainability balance is in surplus, 0,5% GDP.

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