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Publications

Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2019

The Dutch economy continues to flourish, with growth figures of 2.8% this year and 2.6% in 2019. Unemployment will drop to 3.5%, and most households will experience an increase in purchasing power. In this publication CPB presents its analyses and projections of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in 2018 and 2019.

MEV 2019 | 18 September 2018

16 pages | pdf document, 1.7 MB

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The scope of the external return to higher education

This article examines whether the productivity spillovers from a large share of highly educated workers occur within regions, sectors and/or firms. To distinguish between these possibilities, I follow a two-stage procedure to estimate a Mincerian wage equation using matched employer-employee panel data on individual earnings and educational attainment.

CPB Discussion Paper 381 | 3 September 2018

34 pages | pdf document, 1.1 MB

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Frontier firms and followers in the Netherlands: estimating productivity and identifying the frontier

This study shows that constructing a large dataset, which sufficiently covers all firm sizes, is a prerequisite for studying the divergence hypothesis. We merge datasets of individual firm and employee data in the years 20062015 for the Netherlands, resulting in a representative sample of corporations. We find no evidence of diverging productivity between firms on the national frontier and laggard firms.

CPB Background Document | 2 July 2018

60 pages | pdf document, 5.2 MB

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How do the Dutch Finance their Own House? – Descriptive Evidence from Administrative Data

We investigate the major financing components which are used to purchase a house in the Netherlands. This is important to shed more light on the effects of changing lending norms. We look at the full universe of housing transactions in the Netherlands by making use of administrative data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) for the period 2006-2014.

CPB Background Document | 5 June 2018

26 pages | pdf document, 1.3 MB

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A Review on ESBies - The senior tranche of sovereign bond-backed securities

Safe assets, assets with low risk and high liquidity, are the cornerstone for modern financial systems. The biggest holders of safe assets are banks, which need to hold safe assets to meet capital and liquidity requirements. Safe assets also provide high-quality, liquid collateral for banks’ repo transactions. Besides, safe assets provide benchmarks for the price formation of other financial assets.

CPB Background Document | 5 June 2018

20 pages | pdf document, 868.6 KB

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Capital position of banks in the EMU: an analysis of Banking Union scenarios

This CPB Background Document provides details of the simulations of shocks to the capital position of banks in the EMU that underpins the Financial Risk Report 2018 of the CPB. This involves investigating the potential impact of two legacy problems on the capital position of banks. These problems are the high amount of government debt, especially in Italy, and the high level of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets.

CPB Background Document | 29 May 2018

20 pages | pdf document, 1.4 MB

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Economic Decision Problems in Multi-Level Flood Prevention: a new graph-based approach used for real world applications

Flood prevention policy is of crucial importance to the Netherlands. We assess economical optimal flood prevention where multiple barrier dams and dikes protect the hinterland against sea level rise and peak river discharges. Current optimal flood prevention methods only consider dike rings with no dependencies between dikes. We propose a graph-based model for a cost-benefit analysis to determine optimal dike heights with multiple dependencies between dikes and barrier dams.

CPB Discussion Paper 380 | 7 May 2018

42 pages | pdf document, 2.1 MB

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Does managed competition constrain hospitals’ contract prices? Evidence from the Netherlands

In the Dutch health care system health insurers negotiate with hospitals about the pricing of hospital products in a managed competition framework. In this paper, we study these contract prices that became for the first time publicly available in 2016. The data show substantive price variation between hospitals for the same products, and within a hospital for the same product across insurers.

CPB Discussion Paper 378 | 29 March 2018

24 pages | pdf document, 2.9 MB

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Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2018

The Dutch economy is gathering steam. The economic boom is the result of a favourable international economy, low interest rates, expansive budgetary policy and a persistently strong housing market. These last two factors distinguish the Netherlands from other countries. Positive domestic dynamics between increasing employment, higher disposable income levels, higher consumption and more investments will lead to a 3.2% economic growth in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019. Over the 2017–2019 period, the Dutch economy is projected to outperform that of the eurozone by 0.6 percentage points, in each of those years.

CEP 2018 | 22 March 2018

20 pages | pdf document, 3.2 MB

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First Communication National Productivity Board

Productivity growth is on the decline, in the OECD countries. In the Netherlands, structural growth is also slowing down. On the basis of this fact, the European Commission proposed that each EU Member State would install a national productivity board (NPB). The Council of the European Union has since adopted this proposal.

CPB Communication | 22 March 2018

6 pages | pdf document, 1 MB

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Forecasting long-term interest rates

The long-term interest rate in the Euro area is an important exogenous input in CPB macro-econometric models to project the world economy and the Dutch economy, so it is important to have a reliable projection for it. However, there were concerns about the CPB practice of forecasting the long-term interest rate, especially over the inconsistency of long-term interest rate projections in the short and medium term. Therefore, this document compares the old CPB practice with several alternative forecasting methods for long-term interest rates, and evaluates these methods.

CPB Background Document | 22 March 2018

26 pages | pdf document, 1.3 MB

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Forecast Central Economic Plan 2018

The Dutch economy is gathering steam. The economic boom is the result of a favourable international economy, low interest rates, expansive budgetary policy and a persistently strong housing market. These last two factors distinguish the Netherlands from other countries. Positive domestic dynamics between increasing employment, higher disposable income levels, higher consumption and more investments will lead to a 3.2% economic growth in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019. Over the 2017–2019 period, the Dutch economy is projected to outperform that of the eurozone by 0.6 percentage points, in each of those years. 

CPB Policy Brief 2018/06 | 6 March 2018

20 pages | pdf document, 3.2 MB

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Complexities in the spatial scope of agglomeration economies

This article argues that the spatial scope of agglomeration economies is much more complex than is often assumed in the agglomeration literature. We provide insight into this issue by analyzing panel data on individual wages with a high level of spatial detail.

CPB Discussion Paper 376 | 28 February 2018

36 pages | pdf document, 4.2 MB

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Optimal Taxation of Secondary Earners in the Netherlands: Has Equity Lost Ground?

The Netherlands witnessed major reforms in the taxation of (potential) secondary earners over the past decade. Using the inverse-optimal method of optimal taxation we recover the implicit social welfare weights of single- and dual-earner couples over time. The social welfare weights are grosso modo well-behaved before the reforms.

CPB Discussion Paper 375 | 15 February 2018

60 pages | pdf document, 3.6 MB

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Do paid teacher trainee programs lead to additional teachers in secondary education? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

This paper evaluates the quantitative effects of two teacher traineeships that were implemented in the Netherlands to address shortages of fully qualified teachers in secondary education. Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effects of being selected to participate in one of the traineeships. We find no significant local average treatment effects of being selected on the probabilities of enrolling into academic teacher training, obtaining a full teaching qualification, and on working in education, although the point estimates are positive for the first two outcome variables.

CPB Discussion Paper 374 | 14 February 2018

34 pages | pdf document, 1.6 MB

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Competition and pricing behavior in long term care markets: Evidence from the Market for Assistance in Daily Housekeeping Activities

Exploiting a rich data set on the Dutch market for assistance in daily housekeeping activities (ADHA), we find that larger providers obtain a higher price than do small providers. However, compared to other studies on market power in care markets this price difference is considered small to moderate.

CPB Discussion Paper 373 | 8 February 2018

24 pages | pdf document, 480.6 KB

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Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on European Corporate Credit

In this paper we investigate whether the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) and the asset purchase program (APP) led to lower interest rates on new corporate credit, and whether the signalling channel and the capital relief channel played any role in the transmission of these ECB policies.

CPB Discussion Paper 372 | 6 February 2018

22 pages | pdf document, 383.8 KB

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The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

CPB Discussion Paper 371 | 6 February 2018

36 pages | pdf document, 583 KB

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