Unit Cyclical analysis

The Cyclical analysis unit deals with the short-term economic forecasts of the Dutch economy. To that aim the division uses the quarterly model version of the macroeconomic model SAFFIER, a leading-indicators system, several monitoring systems to elaborate recent data and a datasystem. Every year, the unit evaluates the accuracy of the short-term forecasts, by comparing them with the final outcomes.

The 2010 plan of activity sees the conclusion of the re-estimating of several behavioural equations of the SAFFIER model. This will result in a CPB Document about the new model version of SAFFIER. Furthermore research into credit rationing will be started. Finally there will be a publication evaluating the forecasting process during the crisis of 2009.

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Staff

Head	Verbruggen, Johan
Researcher	Jong, Jasper de
Researcher	Kranendonk, Henk
Researcher	Ligthart, Marco
Researcher	Mellens, Martin
Data Analist	Haagsma, Jelte
Data Analist	Westra, Paul
Young Professional	Muns, Sander
Stagiair	Dek, Lennart