Extended main economic indicators: most recent forecasts 2007-2010

The table "Extended main economic indicators" summarizes the most recent forecasts (CPB Newsletter, d.d. December 2009) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. The appendices of Central Economic Plan (CEP) and Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) contain more variables and longer time series. The next forecast will be published in March-April 2010.

2007 2008 2009 2010
International items
Relevant world trade volume (%) 6.3 1.6 – 12 ¾ 7 ½
Import price goods (%) 1.9 4.5 – 7 ½  ¾
Export price competitors (%) 1.8 4.1 – 4 ½ – 2   
Crude oil price (Brent, in $ per barrel) ($) 72.5 96.9 62    77   
Exchange rate (dollar per euro) ($) 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.49
Long-term interest rate (level in %) 4.3 4.3 3 ¾ 3 ¾
Demand and foreign trade (volume)
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth) (%) 3.6 2.0 – 4    1 ½
Private consumption (%) 1.7 1.3 – 2 ½  ¼
Public demand (%) 3.8 2.5 2 ¼  ¾
Gross fixed investment, private non-residential (%) 5.3 7.0 – 15 ¾ – 7 ¼
Exports of goods (non-energy) (%) 8.0 1.0 – 9 ½ 6   
of which domestically produced (%) 5.0 – 1.6 – 10 ¼ 5 ¼
                 re-exports (%) 10.9 3.6 – 9    6 ½
Imports of goods (%) 6.4 3.7 – 10 ½ 4   
Value gross domestic product (GDP) (bln euro) 568.7 595.9 574    583   
Prices, wages and purchasing power (definitions )
Export price goods (excluding energy) (%) 1.8 2.0 – 5    – 2   
Price competitiveness (%) – 1.5 0.0 1 ½ –  ¾
Consumer prices (harmonised, HICP) (%) 1.6 2.2 1    1   
Price of gross domestic product (%) 1.6 2.7  ¼ 0   
Price of national expenditure (%) 1.9 2.4 1 ¼ 1   
Contractual wages market sector (%) 1.8 3.5 3    1 ¼
Compensation per full-time employee market sector  (%) 3.3 3.6 2 ½ 2 ½
Gross wage Jones family (euro) 30000 31500 32500 32500
Purchasing power (Jones, one-income household) (%) 1.9 – 0.8 2    – 1 ¼
Purchasing power (median, all households) (%) 2.2 – 0.2 1 ¾ –  ¼
Labour market
Population (1000's of pers.) 16382 16446 16525 16595
Labour force (15-64) (1000's of pers.) 7603 7714 7755 7765
Employed labour force (15-64) (1000's of pers.) 7259 7410 7375 7255
Unemployment (1000's of pers.) 344 304 380 510
Labour force (15-64) (%) 1.6 1.5  ½ 0   
Employed labour force (15-64) (%) 2.6 2.1 –  ½ – 1 ¾
Unemployment rate (%) 4.5 3.9 5    6 ½
Market sector (definitions )
Production  (%) 4.7 2.1 – 5 ¼ 2   
Labour productivity  (%) 1.9 0.9 – 2 ½ 5 ½
Employment (labour years) (%) 2.7 1.2 – 2 ¾ – 3 ½
Price gross value added  (%) 0.3 1.4 3 ¾ –  ½
Real labour costs (%) 2.9 2.2 – 1    2 ¾
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) 78.4 79.0 80 ¾ 78 ½
Profit share (of domestic production) (level in %) 14.6 13.2 8 ¾ 11 ¼
General government (definitions )
General government financial balance  (% of GDP) 0.2 0.7 – 4.6 – 5.8
Gross debt general government  (% of GDP) 45.5 58.2 62.2 67.4
Taxes and social security contributions  (% of GDP) 38.9 39.1 38.1 38.3