Extended main economic indicators: most recent forecasts 2008-2011

The table "Extended main economic indicators" summarizes the most recent forecasts (CPB Newsletter 2010/2, d.d. June 2010) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. The appendices of Central Economic Plan (CEP) and Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) contain more variables and longer time series. The next forecast will be published in September 2010.

2008 2009 2010 2011
International items
Relevant world trade volume (%) 1.6 – 12.6 7 ½ 5 ¼
Import price goods (%) 4.5 – 7.3 5     ½
Export price competitors (%) 4.1 – 3.9 3 ¼ 1   
Crude oil price (Brent, in $ per barrel) ($) 96.9 61.5 78    78   
Exchange rate (dollar per euro) ($) 1.47 1.39 1.30 1.27
Long-term interest rate (level in %) 4.3 3.7 3 ½ 4 ¼
Demand and foreign trade (volume)
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth) (%) 2.0 – 4.0 1 ¼ 1 ¾
Private consumption (%) 1.3 – 2.5  ¼  ¼
Public demand (%) 2.5 3.0  ¾  ½
Gross fixed investment, private non-residential (%) 7.4 – 18.3 – 12    1   
Exports of goods (non-energy) (%) 1.0 – 9.2 10 ¾ 7 ¾
of which domestically produced (%) – 1.6 – 11.6 6    3 ¾
                 re-exports (%) 3.6 – 6.9 15    11 ¼
Imports of goods (%) 3.7 – 10.4 8 ½ 6   
Value gross domestic product (GDP) (bln euro) 595.9 571.5 587    610   
Prices, wages and purchasing power (definitions)
Export price goods (excluding energy) (%) 2.0 – 5.0 2    0   
Price competitiveness (%) 0.0 1.9  ½ 1   
Consumer prices (CPI) (%) 2.5 1.2 1 ½ 2   
Consumer prices (harmonised, HICP) (%) 2.2 1.0 1 ¼ 2   
Price of gross domestic product (%) 2.7 – 0.1 1 ½ 2   
Price of national expenditure (%) 2.4 1.0 1 ½ 2   
Contractual wages market sector (%) 3.5 2.7 1    1 ½
Compensation per full-time employee market sector  (%) 3.6 2.0 2 ¼ 3   
Gross wage Jones family (euro) 31500 32500 32500 33000
Purchasing power (Jones, one-income household) (%) – 0.8 1.8 – 1 ½ –  ¾
Purchasing power (median, all households) (%) – 0.1 1.5 –  ¾ –  ¾
Labour market
Population (1000's of pers.) 16446 16532 16605 16665
Labour force (15-64) (1000's of pers.) 7714 7752 7760 7780
Employed labour force (15-64) (1000's of pers.) 7410 7373 7315 7315
Unemployment (1000's of pers.) 304 379 445 465
Labour force (15-64) (%) 1.5 0.5 0     ¼
Employed labour force (15-64) (%) 2.1 – 0.5 –  ¾ 0   
Unemployment rate (%) 3.9 4.9 5 ¾ 6   
Market sector (definitions)
Production  (%) 2.1 – 5.0 1 ¾ 2   
Labour productivity  (%) 0.9 – 2.6 4    2 ½
Employment (labour years) (%) 1.2 – 2.5 – 2    –  ½
Price gross value added  (%) 1.4 3.0 1 ¼ 1   
Real labour costs (%) 2.2 – 1.0 1    2   
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) 79.0 81.0 78 ½ 77 ¾
Profit share (of domestic production) (level in %) 13.2 8.5 11    12 ¼
General government (definitions)
General government financial balance  (% of GDP) 0.7 – 5.4 – 6.3 – 4.7
Gross debt general government  (% of GDP) 58.2 60.8 65.7 68.0
Taxes and social security contributions  (% of GDP) 39.1 38.2 37.9 38.5