CPB Document 56
Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU
ISBN 90-5833-166-0March 2004
For more information contact Arjan Lejour
(tel. +31-70-3383311), Ruud de Mooij (tel: +31-70-3383364),
or Jacqueline Timmerhuis (tel. +31-70-3383477)
We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the
European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership:
(i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in
Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free
movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries
are small but positive. This is caused by cheaper imports and the benefits from
trade creation. Dutch exports increase by around 20% (550 million euro). Turkey
experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated
to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free
movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions
in response to EU-membership, economic growth in Turkey could increase more.
In particular, tentative estimates suggest that consumption per capita in Turkey
could raise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU.
For instance, Dutch exports to Turkey would rise by another 1.8 billion euro
and income by 500 million euro.
Key words: Turkey; Regional economic integration; General equilibrium model; Gravity equations; Institutional reform; Migration.
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