CPB Document 99
Economic fluctuations and sickness absence
(Only in Dutch)ISBN 90-5833-239-X
October, 2005
Hans Stegeman
This document empirically investigates the relation between the economic situation and sickness leave in the Netherlands. Like previous research, we find a procyclical relation. Measured by unemployment, the CPB employment barometer or the degree of vacancies, economic upswings go together with more absence due to illness. We estimate the effects with both an error correction model for times series (1980-2003) as well as a fixed-effects model on quarterly industry data for the period 1995-2003. We also show that some policy measures have led to a decrease in sickness absence and that changes in the composition of the workforce tended to raise sickness leave. On balance, the structural level of sickness leave decreased in the last ten to twenty years.
Key words: Sickness absence, labour market
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