CPB uses different models for making forecasts and analyses. Below, a list of all the models CPB uses at this moment. We also work with a Data Science Team. The goal of the Data Science Team is to explore the possibilities presented by data science as well as to promote data science within CPB. Data science is a multidisciplinary field that combines insights from computer science, statistics and, increasingly, from economics. Data science is relevant for CPB as it allows for more efficient forecasts and more robust inference in causal research, and because it offers access to new forms of data, such as text.
- Macro-economic models
- Models on taxes, social security and labour market
- Models on ageing
- Models on purchasing power and labour costs
- Cost-benefit analyses
- Statistical models
- Data science
Short- and medium-term forecasts and analyses for the Dutch economy.
International long-term scenarios, e.g. about European integration or about climate policy.
Nigem is a transparent, peer reviewed quarterly global econometric model based on real economic data. Over 60 countries and regions modelled.
Long-term analysis of policy with respect to taxes, social security and labour market.
Short-term and medium-term forecasts and analysis of the revenues and expenditures for each social security fund.
Short-term and medium-term forecasts and analysis of the wage and income tax.
CPB uses an Asset Liability Management (ALM) model to analyse the effects of policies concerning the second pillar of the Dutch pension system. Policy makers and stakeholders are interested to what extent proposed policy changes lead to an adequate and stable pension, and whether changes lead to redistribution between generations.
Short-term and medium-term forecasts of taxes other than wage and income tax.
Accounting scheme labour supply
Short-term and medium-term forecasts of labour supply.
Long-term analysis of ageing and sustainable government finance.
Calculation of the changes in the real disposable income of households (purchasing power), the average labour costs, the wedge and replacement rates.
Bookkeeping calculation over the full life cycle of the distribution of earned incomes, the redistribution by government and the resulting distribution of welfare.
Bookkeeping calculation of the marginal tax burden over de full life cycle.
A cost-benefit analysis is a systematic method to evaluate the costs and benefits of a project for a society as a whole.
Signalling of changes in the business cycle on the basis of leading indicators.
Our team develops forecast models that form a part of the overall CPB forecasting process. In this regard, we work jointly with other sectors at CPB so as to combine domain knowledge of other sectors with technical expertise of our team. For instance, the unemployment forecasts are supported by two models (publication in Dutch) that have been developed in cooperation with Data Science Team. In addition to forecasts we also assist with general CPB research.