Models

CPB uses different models for making forecasts and analyses. Below, a list of all the models CPB uses at this moment. We also work with a Data Science Team. The goal of the Data Science Team is to explore the possibilities presented by data science as well as to promote data science within CPB. Data science is a multidisciplinary field that combines insights from computer science, statistics and, increasingly, from economics. Data science is relevant for CPB as it allows for more efficient forecasts and more robust inference in causal research, and because it offers access to new forms of data, such as text.

Macro-economic models

SAFFIER II

Short- and medium-term forecasts and analyses for the Dutch economy.

Worldscan

International long-term scenarios, e.g. about European integration or about climate policy.

Nigem

Nigem is a transparent, peer reviewed quarterly global econometric model based on real economic data. Over 60 countries and regions modelled.

Models on taxes, social security and labour market

MIMIC

Long-term analysis of policy with respect to taxes, social security and labour market.

MIMOSI

Short-term and medium-term forecasts and analysis of the revenues and expenditures for each social security fund.
Short-term and medium-term forecasts and analysis of the wage and income tax.

ALM

CPB uses an Asset Liability Management (ALM) model to analyse the effects of policies concerning the second pillar of the Dutch pension system. Policy makers and stakeholders are interested to what extent proposed policy changes lead to an adequate and stable pension, and whether changes lead to redistribution between generations.

TAXUS

Short-term and medium-term forecasts of taxes other than wage and income tax.

Accounting scheme labour supply

Short-term and medium-term forecasts of labour supply.

Models on ageing

GAMMA

Long-term analysis of ageing and sustainable government finance.

Models on purchasing power and labour costs

MIMOSI

Calculation of the changes in the real disposable income of households (purchasing power), the average labour costs, the wedge and replacement rates.

Accounting scheme

Bookkeeping calculation over the full life cycle of the distribution of earned incomes, the redistribution by government and the resulting distribution of welfare.

Lifetime redistribution

Bookkeeping calculation of the marginal tax burden over de full life cycle.

Cost-benefit analyses 

Cost-benefit analysis

A cost-benefit analysis is a systematic method to evaluate the costs and benefits of a project for a society as a whole.

Statistical models

Business-cycle indicator

Signalling of changes in the business cycle on the basis of leading indicators.

Data science

Our team develops forecast models that form a part of the overall CPB forecasting process. In this regard, we work jointly with other sectors at CPB so as to combine domain knowledge of other sectors with technical expertise of our team. For instance, the unemployment forecasts are supported by two models (publication in Dutch) that have been developed in cooperation with Data Science Team. In addition to forecasts we also assist with general CPB research.