June 21, 2011

Juniraming 2011: economische vooruitzichten 2011 en 2012

June 2011 Projection: Economic growth is picking up somewhat

Press release
The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 2% this year. For next year, an increase of GDP of 1¾% is projected. Unemployment seems likely to fall further to an average of 4% in the coming year. The EMU deficit will diminish quickly, from 5.4% of GDP in 2010 to 2.2% of GDP in 2012.

Take a look at the Table Extended Main Economic Indicators.

Economic growth in 2011 and 2012 will be primarily driven by exports. Consumer spending and investments will also make a (minor) contribution to growth this year and next. Overall, public spending will not contribute. This is reported in the Policy Brief 2011/06, ‘June 2011 Projection: Economic projections for 2011 and 2012’, (only in Dutch) published today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

The Dutch economy showed favourable growth figures in the first quarter of this year, partly due to the relatively mild weather conditions, from which the construction sector benefited. Because the international outlook has also improved in recent months, the GDP growth estimate for both the projected years is a ¼%-point higher than in the Central Economic Plan 2011, published in March 2011.

According to the forecasts, employment will rise slightly in both 2011 and in 2012, while unemployment will diminish slowly but steady. As a result of the economic upswing, austerity measures and tax increases, the estimated government deficit will diminish quickly. This is offset by a fall in median purchasing power, which is expected to decrease three years in a row. In addition to high inflation and modest wage increases, this is due partly to policy measures such as the restriction of the health insurance allowance and the childcare allowance in 2012.

The prognosis is marked by a high level of uncertainty. Control of government deficits in various highly developed economies and the debt crisis in Europe could restrict (Dutch) economic growth. Any consequences of unrest in the Arab world are highly unpredictable.


Edwin van de Haar
Johan Verbruggen
Dick Morks

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Edwin van de Haar
Jasper de Jong