Publications


July 4, 2023

Bank Funding, SME lending and Risk Taking

European companies heavily rely on bank credit to finance their operations and investments. Therefore, it is crucial for banks to take risks on corporate loans, although excessive risk-taking can have negative...

April 20, 2023

A simulation of energy prices and corporate profits

Firms have absorbed the higher costs for gas and electricity with energy savings and price increases for customers. The higher energy prices are expected to lead to only a limited number of additional loss-making firms.

A simulation of energy prices and corporate profits
October 4, 2022

Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques

We compare machine learning techniques to a large Bayesian VAR for nowcasting and forecasting world merchandise trade. We focus on how the predictive performance of the machine learning models changes when they have...

July 13, 2022

Structural causes of low interest rates

Interest rates have been trending downward since at least 1980s in developed economies, including the euro area. In fact, real rates (the real rate is the interest rate adjusted for inflation) are now at historically low levels.

savings
April 21, 2021

The effect of the pandemic and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on household consumption

Most of the short-run decline in consumption during the first wave was a voluntary response to the health risks.

Sale shop
December 10, 2019

SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

This discussion paper presents further evidence that the most important published estimates of the effects of unconventional monetary policy are not reliable. It is a further elaboration of the ideas in the CPB...

February 6, 2018

The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

June 8, 2017

Back to normal monetary policy

The question is no longer if, but when and how unconventional monetary policy will be phased out. The undoing of the unconventional policies will affect European economies, just as their build up stimulated the euro area economy.

March 9, 2017

Productivity Slowdown - Evidence for the Netherlands

This paper analyses how The Netherlands compares to other countries in terms of the productivity slowdown. It also includes a comparison of different sectors and tests possible explanatory variables.