Publications


July 13, 2022

Structural causes of low interest rates

Interest rates have been trending downward since at least 1980s in developed economies, including the euro area. In fact, real rates (the real rate is the interest rate adjusted for inflation) are now at historically low levels.

savings
June 23, 2022

Economic interwovenness with China through trade: two sides of the same coin

This is apparent from a study by CPB and CBS on the economic interwovenness of the Netherlands and the European Union with China. The Netherlands and Europe benefit from trade with China, and vice versa. However, this trade also creates mutual economic dependence.

Trade with China
March 23, 2022

Analysis of international trade sanctions against Russia

Het effect van de huidige handelssancties tegen Rusland voor Nederlandse economie zijn op termijn beperkt. Bij een eventuele stop van de Russische energietoevoer kan Nederland indirect wel flink geraakt worden o.a. via internationale productieketens.

No title
January 26, 2022

Trade benefits of the EU and the Internal Market

The Dutch gross domestic product (GDP) is structurally 3.1% higher due to the trade benefits of the European Union. This makes the Netherlands one of the countries that will benefit most from the increased trade by the EU.

 trade benefits of the European Union
July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model

In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on...

June 7, 2019

Estimates of the Financial Cycle for Advanced Economies

Until recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which...

June 7, 2019

Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal Policy

We investigate the impact of the financial cycle on the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

No title
April 18, 2019

Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption

We estimate the contemporaneous relationship between household debt and consumption for the period 2006 to 2015. Using Dutch administrative data, we fi nd that the average consumption of households with high debt has...

Size wallet
May 29, 2018

Towards an EMU banking union: three scenarios

This publication discusses the need for an EMU banking union and describes three possible transition scenarios. This is a translation of chapter 4 of the Dutch publication.

May 29, 2018

Capital position of banks in the EMU: an analysis of Banking Union scenarios

This CPB Background Document provides details of the simulations of shocks to the capital position of banks in the EMU that underpins the Financial Risk Report 2018 of the CPB. This involves investigating the potential impact of two legacy problems on the capital position of banks. These problems are the high amount of government debt, especially in Italy, and the high level of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets.