March 6, 2018

Forecast Central Economic Plan 2018

The Dutch economy is gathering steam. The economic boom is the result of a favourable international economy, low interest rates, expansive budgetary policy and a persistently strong housing market. These last two factors distinguish the Netherlands from other countries. Positive domestic dynamics between increasing employment, higher disposable income levels, higher consumption and more investments will lead to a 3.2% economic growth in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019. Over the 2017–2019 period, the Dutch economy is projected to outperform that of the eurozone by 0.6 percentage points, in each of those years. 

February 28, 2018

Why do wages grow faster in urban areas? Sorting of high potentials matters

The existence of an urban wage growth premium is a well-established empirical fact. This article challenges the conventional view that faster wage growth for urban workers is caused by human capital spillovers.

February 28, 2018

Complexities in the spatial scope of agglomeration economies

This article argues that the spatial scope of agglomeration economies is much more complex than is often assumed in the agglomeration literature. We provide insight into this issue by analyzing panel data on individual wages with a high level of spatial detail.

February 23, 2018

The CPB World Trade Monitor: technical description (update)

The CPB World Trade Monitor (WTM) is an instrument for bringing together, aggregating, and summarizing worldwide monthly data on international trade and industrial production.

February 15, 2018

Optimal Taxation of Secondary Earners in the Netherlands: Has Equity Lost Ground?

The Netherlands witnessed major reforms in the taxation of (potential) secondary earners over the past decade. Using the inverse-optimal method of optimal taxation we recover the implicit social welfare weights of single- and dual-earner couples over time. The social welfare weights are grosso modo well-behaved before the reforms.

February 14, 2018

Do paid teacher trainee programs lead to additional teachers in secondary education? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

This paper evaluates the quantitative effects of two teacher traineeships that were implemented in the Netherlands to address shortages of fully qualified teachers in secondary education. Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effects of being selected to participate in one of the traineeships. We find no significant local average treatment effects of being selected on the probabilities of enrolling into academic teacher training, obtaining a full teaching qualification, and on working in education, although the point estimates are positive for the first two outcome variables.

February 8, 2018

Competition and pricing behavior in long term care markets: Evidence from the Market for Assistance in Daily Housekeeping Activities

Exploiting a rich data set on the Dutch market for assistance in daily housekeeping activities (ADHA), we find that larger providers obtain a higher price than do small providers. However, compared to other studies on market power in care markets this price difference is considered small to moderate.

February 6, 2018

Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on European Corporate Credit

In this paper we investigate whether the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) and the asset purchase program (APP) led to lower interest rates on new corporate credit, and whether the signalling channel and the capital relief channel played any role in the transmission of these ECB policies.

February 6, 2018

The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

February 1, 2018

Fiscal incentives and the choice of organization form in the Netherlands

This paper studies the impact of fi scal incentives on the choice of organizational form.To determine the fiscal incentive we construct the alternative before-tax income and simulate the tax incentive.