Publications


July 4, 2023

Bank Funding, SME lending and Risk Taking

European companies heavily rely on bank credit to finance their operations and investments. Therefore, it is crucial for banks to take risks on corporate loans, although excessive risk-taking can have negative...

October 4, 2022

Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques

We compare machine learning techniques to a large Bayesian VAR for nowcasting and forecasting world merchandise trade. We focus on how the predictive performance of the machine learning models changes when they have...

December 10, 2019

SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

This discussion paper presents further evidence that the most important published estimates of the effects of unconventional monetary policy are not reliable. It is a further elaboration of the ideas in the CPB...

February 6, 2018

The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

December 27, 2016

Accounting for the Business Cycle Reduces the Estimated Losses from Systemic Banking Crises

We re-estimate the e ffects of systemic banking crises in industrialised countries reported by Cerra and Saxena with a model that includes transitory business cycle shocks.