Kopafbeelding publicaties CPB

Publications

Does managed competition constrain hospitals’ contract prices? Evidence from the Netherlands

In the Dutch health care system health insurers negotiate with hospitals about the pricing of hospital products in a managed competition framework. In this paper, we study these contract prices that became for the first time publicly available in 2016. The data show substantive price variation between hospitals for the same products, and within a hospital for the same product across insurers.

CPB Discussion Paper 378 | 29 March 2018

24 pages | pdf document, 2.9 MB

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Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2018

The Dutch economy is gathering steam. The economic boom is the result of a favourable international economy, low interest rates, expansive budgetary policy and a persistently strong housing market. These last two factors distinguish the Netherlands from other countries. Positive domestic dynamics between increasing employment, higher disposable income levels, higher consumption and more investments will lead to a 3.2% economic growth in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019. Over the 2017–2019 period, the Dutch economy is projected to outperform that of the eurozone by 0.6 percentage points, in each of those years.

CEP 2018 | 22 March 2018

20 pages | pdf document, 3.2 MB

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First Communication National Productivity Board

Productivity growth is on the decline, in the OECD countries. In the Netherlands, structural growth is also slowing down. On the basis of this fact, the European Commission proposed that each EU Member State would install a national productivity board (NPB). The Council of the European Union has since adopted this proposal.

CPB Communication | 22 March 2018

6 pages | pdf document, 1 MB

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Forecasting long-term interest rates

The long-term interest rate in the Euro area is an important exogenous input in CPB macro-econometric models to project the world economy and the Dutch economy, so it is important to have a reliable projection for it. However, there were concerns about the CPB practice of forecasting the long-term interest rate, especially over the inconsistency of long-term interest rate projections in the short and medium term. Therefore, this document compares the old CPB practice with several alternative forecasting methods for long-term interest rates, and evaluates these methods.

CPB Background Document | 22 March 2018

26 pages | pdf document, 1.3 MB

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Forecast Central Economic Plan 2018

The Dutch economy is gathering steam. The economic boom is the result of a favourable international economy, low interest rates, expansive budgetary policy and a persistently strong housing market. These last two factors distinguish the Netherlands from other countries. Positive domestic dynamics between increasing employment, higher disposable income levels, higher consumption and more investments will lead to a 3.2% economic growth in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019. Over the 2017–2019 period, the Dutch economy is projected to outperform that of the eurozone by 0.6 percentage points, in each of those years. 

CPB Policy Brief 2018/06 | 6 March 2018

20 pages | pdf document, 3.2 MB

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Complexities in the spatial scope of agglomeration economies

This article argues that the spatial scope of agglomeration economies is much more complex than is often assumed in the agglomeration literature. We provide insight into this issue by analyzing panel data on individual wages with a high level of spatial detail.

CPB Discussion Paper 376 | 28 February 2018

36 pages | pdf document, 4.2 MB

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Optimal Taxation of Secondary Earners in the Netherlands: Has Equity Lost Ground?

The Netherlands witnessed major reforms in the taxation of (potential) secondary earners over the past decade. Using the inverse-optimal method of optimal taxation we recover the implicit social welfare weights of single- and dual-earner couples over time. The social welfare weights are grosso modo well-behaved before the reforms.

CPB Discussion Paper 375 | 15 February 2018

60 pages | pdf document, 3.6 MB

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Do paid teacher trainee programs lead to additional teachers in secondary education? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

This paper evaluates the quantitative effects of two teacher traineeships that were implemented in the Netherlands to address shortages of fully qualified teachers in secondary education. Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effects of being selected to participate in one of the traineeships. We find no significant local average treatment effects of being selected on the probabilities of enrolling into academic teacher training, obtaining a full teaching qualification, and on working in education, although the point estimates are positive for the first two outcome variables.

CPB Discussion Paper 374 | 14 February 2018

34 pages | pdf document, 1.6 MB

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Competition and pricing behavior in long term care markets: Evidence from the Market for Assistance in Daily Housekeeping Activities

Exploiting a rich data set on the Dutch market for assistance in daily housekeeping activities (ADHA), we find that larger providers obtain a higher price than do small providers. However, compared to other studies on market power in care markets this price difference is considered small to moderate.

CPB Discussion Paper 373 | 8 February 2018

24 pages | pdf document, 480.6 KB

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The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

CPB Discussion Paper 371 | 6 February 2018

36 pages | pdf document, 583 KB

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Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on European Corporate Credit

In this paper we investigate whether the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) and the asset purchase program (APP) led to lower interest rates on new corporate credit, and whether the signalling channel and the capital relief channel played any role in the transmission of these ECB policies.

CPB Discussion Paper 372 | 6 February 2018

22 pages | pdf document, 383.8 KB

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Cost-Sharing Design Matters: A Comparison of the Rebate and Deductible in Healthcare

Since 2006, the Dutch population has faced two different cost-sharing schemes in health insurance for curative care: a mandatory rebate of 255 euros in 2006 and 2007, and since 2008 a mandatory deductible. Using administrative data for the entire Dutch population, we compare the effect of both cost-sharing schemes on healthcare consumption between 2006 and 2013.

CPB Discussion Paper 367 | 7 December 2017

60 pages | pdf document, 1.5 MB

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CPB Communication | 27 November 2017

40 pages | pdf document, 379.4 KB

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Co-payments in long-term home care: do they affect the use of care?

We study the effect of a policy change in co-payments on the use of long-term home care in The Netherlands. The change increased co-payments for persons with considerable household financial assets. For identification we apply a difference-in-difference analysis with matched treatment and control groups.

CPB Discussion Paper 363 | 3 November 2017

44 pages | pdf document, 2.9 MB

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Distributionally Weighted Cost-Benefit Analysis: From Theory to Practice

In CBA practices around the world, benefits are valued regardless of to whom they accrue. This disregards basic economic principles, like declining marginal utility of income, or inequality aversion. This paper argues that if redistribution matters, net benefits must be aggregated using a distributionally weighted CBA.

CPB Discussion Paper 364 | 10 October 2017

24 pages | pdf document, 1.4 MB

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