September 15, 2020

CRASH - A Simulation Model for Extreme Events

What is the impact of extreme external shocks, such as the Great Recession, upon Dutch public finances? The question is very challenging, given that such shocks are very different from mild disruptions of the economy...

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August 27, 2020

The impact of a lower return on wealth on optimal wealth accumulation

The return on safe assets has been declining over the past 40 years lowering the return on people’s wealth. Should people save more for retirement to compensate for the lower return on wealth?...

August 11, 2020

Forecasting wage growth and price inflation in the Netherlands with a BVAR model

This background document describes a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model to support the CPB short-term forecasts of wage growth and price...

July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model

In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on...

June 2, 2020

A stress test of Dutch SMEs

This background document to CPB’s Financial Stability Report provides policymakers with an initial assessment of the effects of the corona crisis on the liquidity position of Dutch SMEs and its impact on their...

April 24, 2020

The CPB World Trade Monitor: technical description (update 2020)

The CPB World Trade Monitor (WTM) is an instrument for bringing together, aggregating, and summarizing worldwide monthly data on international trade and industrial production. Its purpose is to report monthly...

April 21, 2020

MICSIM 2.0 A behavioural microsimulation model for the analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands: an updated version

In November 2014, the CPB presented the MICSIM model: a behavioural microsimulation model for the analysis of tax-benefit reforms. MICSIM has been further developed in recent years, and this background document...

September 17, 2019

Dutch surplus on the current account

The Dutch current account surplus has increased substantially since the late 90’s, coming mostly from the trade balance in goods. Internationally the surplus is consistently among the top surplus countries, thereby...

June 24, 2019

Income and wealth during the course of life

Do households diminish their wealth during retirement? The life-cycle model by Modigliani and Brumberg (1954) suggests they do, but the empirical evidence in the literature does not support this hypothesis.

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June 12, 2019

Income differences across migrant groups in the Netherlands: an intergenerational perspective

This paper investigates income disparities across natives and the most prominent migrant groups in the Netherlands, those with a Moroccan, Turkish, Surinamese, or Antillean background....