Publications

September 24, 2020

An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area

We assess the stability of the coefficient on the unemployment gap in various linear dynamic Phillips curve models. We allow the coefficient on the unemployment gap and the other variables in our model to be...

September 15, 2020

Projections September 2020 (MEV 2021)

Extension of support package reduces increase in unemployment, but also leads to greater budget deficit.

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September 15, 2020

CRASH - A Simulation Model for Extreme Events

What is the impact of extreme external shocks, such as the Great Recession, upon Dutch public finances? The question is very challenging, given that such shocks are very different from mild disruptions of the economy...

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August 27, 2020

The impact of a lower return on wealth on optimal wealth accumulation

The return on safe assets has been declining over the past 40 years lowering the return on people’s wealth. Should people save more for retirement to compensate for the lower return on wealth?...

August 17, 2020

August projections 2020-2021

Renewed growth in Dutch economy from third quarter onwards, but downturn will reverberate.

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August 11, 2020

Forecasting wage growth and price inflation in the Netherlands with a BVAR model

This background document describes a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model to support the CPB short-term forecasts of wage growth and price...

July 24, 2020

A Structural Microsimulation Model for Demand-Side Cost-Sharing in Healthcare

Demand-side cost-sharing schemes reduce moral hazard in healthcare at the expense of out-of-pocket risk and equity. With a structural microsimulation model, we show that shifting the starting point of the deductible...

July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model

In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on...

June 16, 2020

June forecast 2020

Unprecedented 6% decrease in GDP in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone. Great uncertainty.

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June 2, 2020

A stress test of Dutch SMEs

This background document to CPB’s Financial Stability Report provides policymakers with an initial assessment of the effects of the corona crisis on the liquidity position of Dutch SMEs and its impact on their...