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Projections September 2020 (MEV 2021), figures
FigureIn the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions will be needed, the economy shrinks by 5% in 2020, followed by over 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise to 6% in 2021. This is concluded in the recently published Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Economic growth is projected to be slightly higher than in the preliminary projections published in August, and unemployment will be half a percentage point lower in 2021. This is due to decisions by the Dutch Cabinet, which include an extension of the support and recovery policy. As a result, the budget deficit will be higher than previously estimated: 0.5% of GDP higher in 2020 and 1% in 2021. Public finances, however, will not be in jeopardy. →
Actualisatie MLT-raming september 2020, cijfers
Figure (in Dutch only)De corona-uitbraak leidt tot een lager bbp-niveau in 2025 dan in de verkenning van maart. Het bbp-volume in 2025 is in de basisverkenning 4% neerwaarts herzien ten opzichte van die in maart; in het dieperdalscenario is dat zelfs 9%. Dit komt zowel door de neerwaartse herziening van het trendmatig arbeidsaanbod als door de neerwaartse herziening van de trendmatige arbeidsproductiviteit. De neerwaartse herziening van het arbeidsaanbod komt door de herziening van de bevolkingsprognose. De corona-uitbraak heeft een negatief effect op de immigratie. De neerwaartse herziening van de trendmatige arbeidsproductiviteitsgroei vloeit voort uit een zwakkere groei van de kapitaalgoederenvoorraad en uit een lagere stijging van de multifactorproductiviteit als gevolg van de corona-uitbraak. →
Forecast June 2020, figures
FigureSocial distancing measures to counter the pandemic, in the Netherlands, have led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity of between 10% and 15%. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the rate of recovery of the economy, the recently published June projections by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis contain various scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, which assumes a moderate recovery, GDP would decrease by 6% in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone. →
