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September 15, 2020

Projections September 2020 (MEV 2021), figures

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In the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions will be needed, the economy shrinks by 5% in 2020, followed by over 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise to 6% in 2021. This is concluded in the recently published Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Economic growth is projected to be slightly higher than in the preliminary projections published in August, and unemployment will be half a percentage point lower in 2021. This is due to decisions by the Dutch Cabinet, which include an extension of the support and recovery policy. As a result, the budget deficit will be higher than previously estimated: 0.5% of GDP higher in 2020 and 1% in 2021. Public finances, however, will not be in jeopardy.

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September 15, 2020

Actualisatie MLT-raming september 2020, cijfers

Figure (in Dutch only)

De corona-uitbraak leidt tot een lager bbp-niveau in 2025 dan in de verkenning van maart. Het bbp-volume in 2025 is in de basisverkenning 4% neerwaarts herzien ten opzichte van die in maart; in het dieperdalscenario is dat zelfs 9%. Dit komt zowel door de neerwaartse herziening van het trendmatig arbeidsaanbod als door de neerwaartse herziening van de trendmatige arbeidsproductiviteit. De neerwaartse herziening van het arbeidsaanbod komt door de herziening van de bevolkingsprognose. De corona-uitbraak heeft een negatief effect op de immigratie. De neerwaartse herziening van de trendmatige arbeidsproductiviteitsgroei vloeit voort uit een zwakkere groei van de kapitaalgoederenvoorraad en uit een lagere stijging van de multifactorproductiviteit als gevolg van de corona-uitbraak.

June 16, 2020

Forecast June 2020, figures

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Social distancing measures to counter the pandemic, in the Netherlands, have led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity of between 10% and 15%. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the rate of recovery of the economy, the recently published June projections by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis contain various scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, which assumes a moderate recovery, GDP would decrease by 6% in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone.

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March 17, 2020

Forecast March 2020 (CEP 2020 and MLT), figures

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Impact of coronavirus on Dutch economy highly uncertain.

March 3, 2020

Forecast March 2020 (CEP 2020 and MLT), figures

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Assuming limited effects of the corona virus, the Dutch economy will grow steady by 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021. Given the exceptionally low growth in world trade and the slight growth in the countries surrounding the Netherlands, the Dutch economy is doing relatively well. In the medium term, growth will also remain around 1.5% per annum. This percentage is considerably higher than reported in CPB's medium-term outlook (MLT) last November. The corrections are almost entirely due to the higher population forecast by Statistics Netherlands. The projections of government finances, for the coming cabinet period, will improve as a result of higher growth levels, which in turn will lead to a smaller sustainability gap of 0.8%.

December 18, 2019

Forecast December 2019, figures

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Economic growth is slowing down in the Netherlands due to the decline in global growth and, to a lesser extent, the issues around nitrogen and PFASs. Unemployment reached its lowest point in 2019, but will also remain exceptionally low in 2020. Labour market shortages are leading to an increase in contract wages. Inflation will slow down next year, as the impact of last year's increase in indirect taxes fades away. The budget surplus is projected to decline as a result of expansionary policies and weaker growth, but the reduction is attenuated by significant underinvestment.

November 18, 2019

MLT-raming november 2019, cijfers

Figure (in Dutch only)

De bbp-groei valt terug naar 1,1% per jaar in 2022-2025 door de geringere groei van het arbeidsaanbod. De vergrijzing leidt er toe dat de bevolking in de leeftijdscategorie 15-74 jaar voor het eerst afneemt. De stijging van de arbeidsproductiviteit is hoger dan in de voorgaande periode maar blijft onder het langjarig gemiddelde.

June 19, 2019

Forecast June 2019, figures

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The Dutch economic growth rate is slowing down due to the ill wind blowing from abroad. Export growth is declining. The waning growth in production has had remarkably little impact on the labour market, which remains tight with a, currently, continuing increase in vacancies and rapid employment growth. Unemployment will remain exceptionally low, according to the projections, but will increase slightly in 2020. Purchasing power will see a positive development because of policy and, in 2020, moderate inflation. The government budget will continue to be in surplus. US trade policy, the chances of a no-deal Brexit, and the instable situation in Italy are important downward risks to the Dutch economy. These are the conclusions by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its latest June Projections. CPB director, Laura van Geest: ‘Despite a rather standard economic growth rate, employment growth will remain remarkably large. Wage increases will be limited, due to the tight labour market—something that, incidentally, is not a uniquely Dutch phenomenon.’

March 21, 2019

Forecast 21 March 2019 (CEP 2019), figures

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The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.

March 5, 2019

Forecast 5 March 2019 (cCEP 2019), figures

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The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.