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September 15, 2020

Projections September 2020 (MEV 2021), figures


In the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions will be needed, the economy shrinks by 5% in 2020, followed by over 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise to 6% in 2021. This is concluded in the recently published Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Economic growth is projected to be slightly higher than in the preliminary projections published in August, and unemployment will be half a percentage point lower in 2021. This is due to decisions by the Dutch Cabinet, which include an extension of the support and recovery policy. As a result, the budget deficit will be higher than previously estimated: 0.5% of GDP higher in 2020 and 1% in 2021. Public finances, however, will not be in jeopardy.

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