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September 15, 2020

Extension of support package reduces increase in unemployment, but also leads to greater budget deficit

Pressrelease

In the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions will be needed, the economy shrinks by 5% in 2020, followed by over 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise to 6% in 2021. This is concluded in the recently published Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Economic growth is projected to be slightly higher than in the preliminary projections published in August, and unemployment will be half a percentage point lower in 2021. This is due to decisions by the Dutch Cabinet, which include an extension of the support and recovery policy. As a result, the budget deficit will be higher than previously estimated: 0.5% of GDP higher in 2020 and 1% in 2021. Public finances, however, will not be in jeopardy.

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August 17, 2020

Renewed growth in Dutch economy from third quarter onwards, but downturn will reverberate

Pressrelease

In the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions are needed, the economy will shrink by 5% in 2020, followed by 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise up to 7% in 2021. These are the conclusions of the concept Macro Economic Outlook (cMEV) 2021, recently published by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. These projections form the starting point for the Dutch Cabinet’s final decision-making process on the 2021 budget. They include the agreed policy up to the end of July. This means that the projections currently still assume the financial support policy to not be continued in October. The projected recovery is largely determined by the development of the pandemic. To do justice to this uncertainty, a scenario is also included in which large-scale physical contact restrictions will once again be implemented. Under such a scenario, the economy will shrink also in 2021, and unemployment will increase to 10%.

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June 16, 2020

Unprecedented 6% decrease in GDP in 2020, amid great uncertainty

Pressrelease

Social distancing measures to counter the pandemic, in the Netherlands, have led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity of between 10% and 15%. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the rate of recovery of the economy, the recently published June projections by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis contain various scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, which assumes a moderate recovery, GDP would decrease by 6% in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone. CPB’s Director Pieter Hasekamp: ‘Current uncertainty poses major dilemmas for the government. During the recovery phase, a controlled phase-out of government support measures would be desirable, but the extent to which the government can withdraw depends on the pace of economic recovery. Recovery could be accelerated by an internationally coordinated approach to the crisis, and by moving up investments where possible, such as in housing construction and energy transition.’

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March 20, 2020

Thursday 26 March 9am corona crisis economic scenarios

Pressrelease

On Thursday 26 March at 9am, CPB will publish scenarios on the impact of the corona crisis on the Dutch economy and public finances.

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March 21, 2019

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over.

Pressrelease

For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.

March 5, 2019

The economy is cooling

Pressrelease

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control. These are the conclusions published today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, as included in its projections in the Central Economic Plan 2019 (CEP).

December 19, 2018

CPB: Economy doing well, but past its peak

Pressrelease

For next year, a continued robust Dutch economic growth of 2.2% is projected. However, looking at growth percentages of 2.9% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, economic growth is past its peak and levelling off.