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October 3, 2008

Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts

Publication

We compare the accuracy of our published GDP growth forecasts from our large macro model, SAFFIER, to those produced by VAR based models using both classical and Bayesian estimation techniques.

January 15, 2008

Decomposition of GDP growth in European countries; different methods tell different stories

Publication

The composition of economic growth can be analysed in two different ways. In the 'traditional method' for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports.

April 17, 2007

SAFFIER; a multi-purpose model of the Dutch economy for short-term and medium-term analyses

Publication

Since late 2004, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis has been using the macro-econometric model SAFFIER for its short-term and medium-term analyses.

October 10, 2006

Focus on the track record of the short and medium term forecasts.

Publication

This report analyses the accuracy of CPB’s short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy in the period 1971-2005.

June 16, 2006

SAFFIER: a 'multi purpose'-model of the Dutch economy for short and medium term analysis

Publication

Voor analyses en ramingen op korte en middellange termijn maakt het CPB sinds eind 2004 gebruik van het macro-econometrische model Saffier.

January 25, 2006

Accuracy of short-term CPB forecasts for the years 1971-2004; Including a comparison with nine other institutes

Publication

This report analyses the accuracy of CPB's short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy in the period 1971-2004.

November 25, 2005

How to determine the contributions of domestic demand and exports to economic growth?

Publication

This memorandum unveils the differences between the 'Dutch method' and the 'international method' to determine the contributions of expenditure categories to economic growth.

September 21, 2004

Werkgelegenheidsbarometer

Publication

This document is in Dutch, there is no English translation.

December 19, 2003

Trefzekerheid van CPB-prognoses voor de jaren 1971-2002

Publication

This document is in Dutch, there is no English translation.

November 19, 2003

Bringing up to date and revising the CPB leading indicator

Publication

When will the business cycle turn?