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October 12, 2020

Offshore Tax Evasion and Wealth Inequality: Evidence from a Tax Amnesty in the Netherlands

Publication

As long as there have been taxes, people have tried to avoid and evade them. Interest in these phenomena has been fueled by the effects on public revenues, as well as on the distribution of wealth and income. One prominent example of tax evasion is the hiding of wealth and income in tax havens. According to estimates by Zucman (2013), 8% of global financial wealth, or $5.9 trillion, is held in tax havens. During the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, the G20 countries vowed to tackle offshore tax evasion and proclaimed the end of the “era of banking secrecy”. In recent years, leaks containing confidential information from financial institutions as well as academic research investigating leaks and tax amnesties have confirmed the popular narrative that tax evasion is concentrated among the wealthiest in society (Alstadsæter, Johannesen and Zucman, 2018, 2019). This does not only affect public revenues, but also the measurement of wealth and income inequality.

September 24, 2020

An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area

Publication

We assess the stability of the coefficient on the unemployment gap in various linear dynamic Phillips curve models. We allow the coefficient on the unemployment gap and the other variables in our model to be time-varying, so that we can monitor the importance of the Phillips curve over time. We compare the effects of different measures for inflation and inflation expectations on our estimation results. In our analysis, we use state space methods and adopt a practical approach to Bayesian estimation with feasible testing and diagnostic checking procedures. Empirical results are presented for the United States and the five largest euro area economies.

June 2, 2020

Risicorapportage Financiële markten 2020

Publication (in Dutch only)

Coronacrisis legt kwetsbaarheden financiële systeem bloot.

June 2, 2020

Een nieuwe plaag voor de EMU

Publication (in Dutch only)

Bij de vormgeving van een Europese aanpak van de coronacrisis zijn solidariteit en welbegrepen eigenbelang belangrijke overwegingen.

June 2, 2020

A stress test of Dutch SMEs

Publication

This background document to CPB’s Financial Stability Report provides policymakers with an initial assessment of the effects of the corona crisis on the liquidity position of Dutch SMEs and its impact on their solvency. It provides information by means of a stress test. Based on 2018 administrative data on Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we simulated the decrease in turnover for individual companies, in various sectors. On average, the pre-corona financial starting position of Dutch SMEs was good; many companies were both liquid and solvent. We subsequently looked at the impact of the corona shocks on the liquidity position and analysed the liquidity needs.

June 2, 2020

Blootstelling aan Nederland en risico’s bij Europese banken

Publication (in Dutch only)

In dit achtergronddocument behorend bij het hoofdstuk ‘Risico’s in en voor de EMU’ van de Risicorapportage Financiële Markten 2020, vullen wij de analyse in twee richtingen aan. Ten eerste analyseren wij het bezit van Nederlandse vermogenstitels en investeringen in Nederland die de door de coronacrisis zwaarst getroffen eurolanden (Frankrijk, Italië en Spanje) hebben gedaan. Hiervoor bekijken wij het bezit van Nederlandse aandelen en schuldbewijzen van, en de directe investeringen in Nederland door, de private sector van deze landen. In hoofdstuk 5 van de Risicorapportage hebben wij de omgekeerde blootstelling geanalyseerd, namelijk van Nederland aan de zwaarst getroffen landen. Ten tweede onderzoeken wij de ontwikkelingen in de blootstelling van individuele banken aan de eigen overheid en het aantal niet-presterende leningen voorafgaand aan de coronacrisis.

July 2, 2019

Certificering budgettaire raming Wet Implementatie tweede EU-richtlijn antibelastingontwijking

Publication (in Dutch only)

Deze notitie certificeert de raming van de fiscale beleidsmaatregel uit het wetsvoorstel ‘Wet implementatie tweede EU-richtlijn antibelastingontwijking’. Het betreft een wetsvoorstel ter implementatie van de tweede Anti Tax Avoidance Directive (ATAD2), een Europese richtlijn tegen belastingontwijking. Het CPB acht de raming van de budgettaire effecten van de maatregel redelijk en neutraal. De raming kent een hoge mate van onzekerheid door een gebrek aan gegevens over belastinggrondslagen van bedrijven die door ATAD2 worden getroffen en door onzekerheid over hoe bedrijven op ATAD2 zullen reageren.

June 11, 2019

Dutch SME bank financing, from a European perspective

Publication

Dutch SMEs are obtaining bank loans less often than SMEs elsewhere in the eurozone.

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June 11, 2019

Measuring Credit Rationing of Dutch firms

Publication

This background document is associated to the CPB Policy brief on Dutch SME-bank financing in a European perspective. It explains in detail what we do in a microsimulation model that is described in a textframe on credit rationing on page 14 of the Policy Brief. On the basis of firm-level data from Statistics Netherlands and under strong assumptions, we estimate the amount of credit rationing that Dutch firms potentially faced in 2007-2016. Our simulation study is novel, and it highlights that researching credit rationing on the basis of microdata is feasible and that it can yield insights relevant for policy applications.

June 7, 2019

Estimates of the Financial Cycle for Advanced Economies

Publication

Until recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which followed. Financial quantities such as outstanding credit and house prices are now believed to have real macroeconomic effects. In order to study these effects we need to quantify the influence of the financial system. The financial cycle, characterized by long period cyclical movements in financial variables, may provide such a measure.