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November 17, 2020

Belastingontduiking en vermogensongelijkheid

Publication (in Dutch only)

Inkeerregeling vergroot belastingopbrengst, ook op langere termijn.

October 12, 2020

Offshore Tax Evasion and Wealth Inequality: Evidence from a Tax Amnesty in the Netherlands


As long as there have been taxes, people have tried to avoid and evade them. Interest in these phenomena has been fueled by the effects on public revenues, as well as on the distribution of wealth and income. One prominent example of tax evasion is the hiding of wealth and income in tax havens. According to estimates by Zucman (2013), 8% of global financial wealth, or $5.9 trillion, is held in tax havens. During the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, the G20 countries vowed to tackle offshore tax evasion and proclaimed the end of the “era of banking secrecy”. In recent years, leaks containing confidential information from financial institutions as well as academic research investigating leaks and tax amnesties have confirmed the popular narrative that tax evasion is concentrated among the wealthiest in society (Alstadsæter, Johannesen and Zucman, 2018, 2019). This does not only affect public revenues, but also the measurement of wealth and income inequality.

October 6, 2020

Nederlandse bedrijven kwetsbaar voor nieuwe coronagolf in buitenland

Publication (in Dutch only)

Nederlandse transportsector en industrie kwetsbaar voor nieuwe coronagolf buitenland.

October 1, 2020

Dutch tax treaties and developing countries - a network analysis -


CPB analyses six tax treaties of the Netherlands with developing countries. These treaties are part of a tax network of more than 100 countries. CPB determines the tax burden on dividend, interest and royalty flows over the network and computes the impact of diversion of these flows for withholding tax revenues. This analysis is at the request of the Policy and Operations Evaluation Department (IOB) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model


In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on a simple general equilibrium framework. The model is useful despite its simplicity, because it has a good empirical fit. We investigate it by applying the gravity model to both a US trade war scenario and different Brexit scenarios.

July 14, 2020

Certificering budgettaire raming Wet implementatie richtlijnen elektronische handel

Publication (in Dutch only)

Deze notitie certificeert de geraamde opbrengst van de fiscale beleidsmaatregel uit het wetsvoorstel ‘Wet implementatie richtlijnen elektronische handel’. Het CPB concludeert dat de raming door het ministerie van Financiën redelijk en neutraal is. De mate van onzekerheid schat het CPB in als hoog, voornamelijk vanwege de onzekere toekomstige ontwikkeling van de elektronische handel.

June 2, 2020

Risicorapportage Financiële markten 2020

Publication (in Dutch only)

Coronacrisis legt kwetsbaarheden financiële systeem bloot.

April 24, 2020

The CPB World Trade Monitor: technical description (update 2020)


The CPB World Trade Monitor (WTM) is an instrument for bringing together, aggregating, and summarizing worldwide monthly data on international trade and industrial production. Its purpose is to report monthly developments in trade and production at the earliest possible date, covering a sample of countries as large as possible.

December 19, 2019

Limitation of holding structures for intra-EU dividends: A blow to tax avoidance?


This article analyses the recent rulings from the European Court of Justice in two Danish cases and examines their possible impact on international tax avoidance.

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December 10, 2019

SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area


This discussion paper presents further evidence that the most important published estimates of the effects of unconventional monetary policy are not reliable. It is a further elaboration of the ideas in the CPB discussion paper "Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?". Previous empirical studies seem to show that the unconventional monetary policy of the ECB, also known as balance sheet policy, has a positive effect on growth and inflation. However, this conclusion is unfounded, because institutional features of monetary policy in the euro area make it impossible to identify unexpectedly exogenous variation in monetary policy.