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December 10, 2019

SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

Publication

This discussion paper presents further evidence that the most important published estimates of the effects of unconventional monetary policy are not reliable. It is a further elaboration of the ideas in the CPB discussion paper "Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?". Previous empirical studies seem to show that the unconventional monetary policy of the ECB, also known as balance sheet policy, has a positive effect on growth and inflation. However, this conclusion is unfounded, because institutional features of monetary policy in the euro area make it impossible to identify unexpectedly exogenous variation in monetary policy.

February 19, 2019

Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?

Publication

This research re-examines the findings of the existing literature on the effects of unconventional monetary policy.

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February 6, 2018

The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

Publication

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

June 8, 2017

Back to normal monetary policy

Publication

The question is no longer if, but when and how unconventional monetary policy will be phased out. The undoing of the unconventional policies will affect European economies, just as their build up stimulated the euro area economy.

March 9, 2017

Productivity Slowdown - Evidence for the Netherlands

Publication

This paper analyses how The Netherlands compares to other countries in terms of the productivity slowdown. It also includes a comparison of different sectors and tests possible explanatory variables.

December 27, 2016

Accounting for the Business Cycle Reduces the Estimated Losses from Systemic Banking Crises

Publication

We re-estimate the e ffects of systemic banking crises in industrialised countries reported by Cerra and Saxena with a model that includes transitory business cycle shocks.

August 17, 2016

Evidence on Dutch macroeconomic and sectoral productivity performance: Some stylised facts

Publication

Productivity is the key driver of long-run living standards. However, in recent years productivity growth has been low across the developed world.